Wednesday, August 03, 2005

NOAA's Revised '05 Forecast + Hello There Harvey!

NOAA 2005 OutlookCourtesy NOAA
NOAA has revised their forecast upward. Again. Read the press release. Compare and contrast NOAA's predictions with the Tropical Meteorology Project's predictions released in May:
2005 Forecast
Forecast Activity as of: 12/03/0404/01/05
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 11 13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 55 65
Hurricanes (H)(5.9) 6 7
Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5) 25 35
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3 3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0) 6 7
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 115 135
Check the right sidebar for a 2004 comparison and link to last year's scoreboard.

Regional Probability Forecast:
Probabilities For At Least One Major (Category 3-4-5) Hurricane Landfall On Each Of The Following Coastal Areas:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 49% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 39% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Harvey has arrived. As of a mid-afternoon advisory, Harvey is much stronger than originally believed.

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft sent to investigate Harvey reports that winds are at 60 mph, a mere 14 mph from hurricane strength. Harvey looks like it will torture Bermuda and then head out to sea to cause havoc in the shipping channels.

And out of the "Train Train Train" of activity coming off of Cape Verde, which I posted about yesterday comes a new tropical wave. From the NHC:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
If the wave develops into a tropical depression, it will be #9. (Oh, great! Now I'm going to have that stupid Yoko Ono song in my head all night.) If the depression develops into a storm, it will be named Irene.

Tuesday, August 02, 2005

Train Train Train...

And so begins the season when storms begin to boil off of Cape Verde, Africa (bottom right of image). This train of thunderstorms is too young to predict, but this is what we start to see in Mid-August. This type of activity is what brought us a hurricane roughly every two weeks last year beginning with Charley on August 13 (Friday!). Here at home, the Gulf waters are a warm, hurricane-fueling 90 degrees.

This morning television pundits pretending to be scientists were arguing whether global warming fuels the fierce hurricane seasons we've seen of late or whether it's a cyclical phenomenon, or maybe we just notice it more because there are more people now, or...or...or. (Hey! Maybe the sky is really made of marshmallow pudding!) I'm not a climatologist, so I have no opinion as to the cause. I have suspicions, but no valid opinions that are based on fact not feeling. I just wish they would stop arguing from their political and paid points of view and do some real science that we can act upon before this petri dish we call a planet implodes. I mean, people, let's try getting to the truth instead of serving our own self interests. Did I say that out loud? Hahahaha. Oh...whew...I crack me up.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression #8 looks set to hassle Bermuda and its environs. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Bermuda and the NHC is watching the system for further development. As will I...

Saturday, July 30, 2005

Hurricane Survival Guide: Chapter One Published

I published Chapter One: Two Rules of the Florida Hurricane Survival Guide for Newbies on a new blog. This way, you don't have to receive the whole post in your inbox if you're not inclined to read it.

If you missed the Introduction: How We Got Here From There, you can read it here...

When I publish the next chapter, I will post a link on News From Hurricane Land instead of posting the entire text. I'm doing this to separate my smart assy book from my smart assy news on the season and to show mercy to you...my valued subscribers.

Today the tropics are quiet with the exception of a tropical wave that doesn't appear to be developing into anything stronger. The NHC says conditions don't look good for the wave:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATE THAT INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS DIMINISHED...SQUALLS PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
As you might imagine, this news does a lot to relieve our tropical depression.

Tuesday, July 26, 2005

News from...er...Dust Land?

African Dust StormFrom NASA, this image shows a dust storm blowing off the coast of Africa that is supposed to reach Florida today. According to local meteorologists, the affects will be minimal. We're supposed to have more vibrant sunrises and sunsets, but forecasters don't expect the storm to affect air quality. However, individuals with asthma and other respiratory problems might experience some difficulty as the dust makes its way over the peninsula. Story

Apparently, this is a common summer phenomenon. More about dust storms from NASA. Saharan dust also affects the intensity of Florida thunderstorms. Story from NASA

Here's a pretty cool slide show from NBC6.

And of course, no meteorological story would be complete without a complete disagreement among experts. Kevin Lollar of the News-Press says the Dust mass should miss us.

Dust Storm 03 This is an image of a Sarahan dust storm over the Atlantic Ocean and Canary Islands taken on July 24, 2003. Courtesy: NASA

Meanwhile, in hurricane news, Tropical Storm Franklin spurs warnings for Bermuda and the last advisory is issued for Tropical Depression Gert as it dissipates over México.

Sunday, July 24, 2005

Tropical Storm Gert

We're working our way through the alphabet pretty quick this year. June isn't even over and we're up to G - for Gert, which looks as if it will hit México...right on the heels of the pounding they took from Emily.
From the National Hurricane Center
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY.
Meanwhile, Franklin looks like it will be a fish storm. Hurricane or no, the beaches are still unusable here due to more red tide related fallout. See, the red tide kills fish. Sea birds eat the dead fish. Well, it seems the birds have been eating so well lately that the waters are now polluted with...you guessed it...bird shit.

Welcome to Paradise!

Friday, July 22, 2005

Tropical Storm Franklin Blows Up in the Caribbean

Franklin TrackTropical Storm Franklin (projected track at left) blew up almost over night it seems. It's not supposed to affect Florida, but recall Hurricane Jeanne? (Verified track at right.) That nasty storm spun out in the Atlantic for days before deciding it too wanted a crack at poor weather-beaten Florida.

For those who don't remember or didn't experience Florida's shattered collective psyche, here's a reminder from cartoonist Jeff Parker: Jeff Parker Cartoon - Hurricane Ivan 2004It seemed funnier between December and May somehow.

Meanwhile, Jim has finished cutting and fitting the remaining plywood shutters for our house. Last year, the boys actually framed in our most vulnerable windows instead of just laying flat plywood, but several went uncovered because we ran out of time or materials. The picture shows the front window framed in before the plywood is applied. It's like a wall outside the house and while it seemed like overkill, it turns out to be the strongest application we can make on our own. The less vulnerable windows will be covered with plywood affixed with Plylox clips. The image at right shows Austin and Jim with some scrap plywood we scrounged up somewhere. I don't even remember where we got it, just that whomever gave it to us had used the wood for a Halloween party. We're not all that superstitious, but we still turned the painted side in toward the window. No sense inviting disaster - it hardly needed an invite last year.

We're bracing for another season, trying to take care of ourselves and our neighbors. I'm less freaked out this year because I know what to do and how hurricanes work and what you can and can't do to save life and property. With knowledge, fear subsides. (Anyone read the allegory of the cave?)

Wednesday, July 20, 2005

Mailing List Trouble

My defection from Intense Host is complete and the mailing list trouble should be worked out, though your old passwords probably won't work with the new list. To change or receive your password by email, go to the subscribe page. I'm sorry for the inconvenience. Hopefully this will do it for tech issues this season. Ha!

Recent posts you might have missed:

México's Riviera Maya Takes Pounding from Emily

Hurricane Emily to Strike Cancún - Rich People Evacuating

Under the Bermuda High

Hurricane Repellent

Tuesday, July 19, 2005

México's Riviera Maya Takes Pounding from Emily

It appears that Cancún was spared a direct hit from the storm while further south less "touristy" resorts took quite a beating. Mexican officials said there was little damage to the ruins at Tulum but the backpacker hotels lost their roofs as did, apparently, some of the larger luxury hotels.
Story

This story is the first mention of any of the locals in the Riviera Maya region that I have seen in the US English language press. Apparently, many are now homeless. Story

We have not yet heard from any of our friends who live in Cancún, but the regional newspaper from the state* of Quintana Roo says that Cancún took mostly tree damage and that no injuries or deaths have been reported. I did my best to translate the story, but I'm far from fluent in Spanish.
Destruction of more than 50 kilometers of the electric network along the Riviera Maya, interruption of drinking water service, blocked highways, collapsed gas stations, antennae, trees and billboards, as well as flooding and damage to dwellings were left in the path of Hurricane Emily Sunday night and early Monday morning.

Along the Riviera Maya some weak dwellings were destroyed and trailers were overturned under the force of the hurricane that caused terror among inhabitants.

The hurricane, a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, made landfall in the the state of Quintana Roo between Xel Há and Tulum with sustained winds of more than 230 kilometers per hour and gusts of 285 kilometers per hour, devastating the territory between Playa del Carmen and Tulum.

Electric service has been out since 9:00 PM Monday and, as of Tuesday night, service had not yet been 100% restored.

Emily came ashore in the zone between Puerto Aventuras and Akumal, where two gas stations collapsed, a car was buried between two cement walls and a cell phone antenna [tower] came down. The preliminary estimate by authorities yesterday projected economic losses of over 600 million pesos [$60 million USD] along the Riviera Maya, including damages in Playa del Carmen.

It is important to emphasize that as of yesterday no human deaths or injuries were reported as a direct result of the storm. In Cancún and Cozumel, the damage done by Emily's hurricane-force winds were minor. The region reported road damage, some downed power poles and billboards and flooding in addition to the destruction of more than 450 trees.
If you read Spanish, you can read the full story or go to the
Novedades Home Page.

I know power and communications are down, so I'm hoping for the best, though we have not heard a word out of Cancún since the hurricane began to threaten.

* Quintana Roo is one of three states on the Yucatán peninsula. Yucatán is also a state on the peninsula, which causes some confusion. Campeche rounds out the trio. Quintana Roo's coastline is on the Caribbean Sea while both Yucatán and Campeche are on the Gulf of Mexico. Learn more

Monday, July 18, 2005

Emily Comes Ashore Near Tulum, México

Still no word from our friends...
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF TULUM MEXICO NEAR 0630Z...230 AM EDT THIS MORNING. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT LANDFALL WAS 135 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE NORTHERN EYEWALL...WHERE THE WORST WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED...PASSED DIRECTLY OVER COZUMEL.
Tulum is about 100 miles south of Cancún. I wonder how the Mayan ruins will withstand the direct hit. We'll know more later tonight.

Sunday, July 17, 2005

Hurricane Emily to Strike Cancún - Rich People Evacuating

Courtesy NOAA

It appears Emily is going to take a bite out of our beloved Cancún. We're watching and thinking of our friends there. As you can imagine, housing in El Centro is not as sound as the hotels and villas built for tourist use both on Cancún Island - also known as the Hotel Zone - and along the coast from Cancún to Playa del Carmen. It sounds like evacuation efforts are focused on and maybe even reserved for tourists; I haven't seen anything about evacuation of the citizens who live in Cancún City. Imagine my surprise. The rich, white people get to leave before the poor, brown people. I know, it's just shocking, isn't it?
A massive evacuation of tourists in one of the world's largest resorts began Sunday, as hundreds of buses were dispatched to move tens of thousands of tourists away from Hurricane Emily, heading toward a direct hit on the coast.

The very size of the task was daunting: about 500 buses were ordered to move 30,000 tourists in Cancun - part of a total of 70,000 to 80,000 mostly foreign tourists to be evacuated statewide to temporary shelters in ballrooms and convention centers.

"We have very little hope that this will change course," said a grim-faced Cancun Mayor, Francisco Alor. "This hurricane is coming with same force as Gilbert," a legendary 1988 hurricane that killed 300 people in Mexico and the Caribbean. Full Story...
Emily is almost a category 5 storm now, with winds of 150 mph. Manuela, Jesus, Yanet...everyone: we are thinking of you. Cuidado amigos, cuidado.

Saturday, July 16, 2005

All Quiet In Florida...For Now

We're under the Bermuda High, which is keeping hurricanes away from us for the moment. Jim and I might even go on the Cortez Yacht Club's poker run today...the red tide is the only thing giving us pause for thought. Plus, we have a lot of work to do on the house still. We want to get our shutters in shape without doing it in a panic. The problem is, when it's finally nice like this, you want to enjoy paradise for a weekend. So, we'll probably do a little of both. A little work, a little play. In any case, it feels good to not have a storm making our decisions for us.

I am changing hosting companies this weekend. I've already made some of the changes, so my email and the Hurricane Land e-mail list will be disrupted for about 24-36 hours. (RSS feeds will continue to work normally.) I apologize for the inconvenience, but with Intense Host, my main site has been down more than up for the last couple of months. It wouldn't be so bad if they'd explain or let you contact them, but all you get is dead silence on their end. The 800 number is even blocked now. Seems like a good time to collect my files and move on. I was weary of talking to their tech support anyway. I'm switching to Surpass, which comes highly recommended and is cheaper. Hopefully, they will keep their servers up and running.

Thursday, July 14, 2005

Hurricane Repellent

There's a high pressure system in place over Florida, which is ensuring that Emily stays to our south.

Three cheers for high pressure! (Who knew that moving to Florida would make me into such a weather geek?)

Looks like a nice weekend for us, if we can stand the red tide, which incidentally was not cleared out by Dennis. In fact, it's worse than ever.
"One of the greatest losses resulting from the red tide that swept through much of lower Tampa Bay in recent weeks was the 16-year stockpile of Goliath grouper." [Known as Jewfish before the PC era. -Ed.]
See the rest of Frank Sargeant's fishing report "Goliath Grouper Wasted By Red Tide" for the tragically smelly details.

Meanwhile, the panhandle continues its cleanup effort and tries to put life back together after two major hurricane hits in less than a year.
Gulf Coast Cleans up from Hurricane Dennis.

Some people are just done with it: Repeat Hurricanes Have Some Panhandle Residents Planning to Leave. Unless you leave Florida entirely, you won't escape the hurricanes. Ask the people in inland Polk County; they got hit three times last year.

And this one from the "meaner than hell" + "what's wrong with unions" files: Transit Workers Fired For Not Helping Evacuations Get Jobs Back. Can you feel the love? These folks wouldn't survive a day in our community. They'd be shunned for life. In fact, some of us might just take them out for a nice blanket party. Who refuses to help their neighbor when a hurricane is closing in? Assholes, that's who.

And the Florida tourism PR machine is back in business as well: Florida welcomes visitors post-hurricane Dennis.

In future news: another small area of disorganized storm activity appears to be forming, but is not expected to develop much until it reaches warmer waters:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
We will be, as always, monitoring the wave and hoping that our hurricane-repelling high pressure stays in place.

Wednesday, July 13, 2005

Outside the Cone

Florida is outside the cone for a change. Outside the cone is a lovely place to be. It gives us additional time to prepare for the next storm. We are getting an estimate on a hurricane door for our garage. I didn't much like the way the old door behaved when Dennis' winds came crashing up from the south, so we're looking at getting a "wind kit" or just upgrading the whole door.

The garage door, because it is such a large opening, is the Achilles heel for most homes. Once the wind enters your home, the roof comes off. Once the roof comes off...well, you're toast. Wet toast, but toast just the same. I will explore this more in the coming chapters of my book, which will be posted as hurricane activity allows me time to edit and proof them.

It looks like Emily might crash into the Yucatan, which is hard for us to watch as we have friends on that peninsula, too. Manuela, Jesus Yanet, Alfredo, Yurson and Estrella: we're thinking about you.

As of now, the winds are not strengthening and hurricane watches and warnings have been downgraded to tropical storm advisories for the southern windward islands. Emily is not expected to reach hurricane strength before clearing the islands tonight as predicted earlier.

Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Good Morning Emily


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
Sigh...

Monday, July 11, 2005

Tropical Depression # 5

TD 5 PathTropical depression #5 has formed out of a tropical wave off of Cape Verde. It is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next 24 hours (by early morning on July 12). Its name will be Emily. It's too early to tell where it's headed.

Meanwhile, Gulf Coast residents are recovering from a direct hit from Dennis. Though it was still a hurricane when it made landfall, it had weakened to a category three and moved through the area quickly.
Damage Reports

There's a reason there are so many mobile homes in Florida (besides the large number of retiree-owned second homes). The state, supported by the elitist, bought-and-paid-for legislature and our illustrious anti-worker governor, is fundamentally opposed to paying a living wage. If you can't afford to rent a house, apartment or one of the ugly Florida condos that seem to multiply like maggots even as we sleep, your choices are pretty much living in your car or in a mobile home. (The choices are similar if you think about it. The mobile home is more spacious, but you can't pack up and drive it to Georgia when a hurricane threatens.) When a storm comes, those who need protection most are often lack the resources to even run and hide, let alone rebuild: Low -income Residents Hit Hard. If there is anything you can do to help someone in your immediate area...

The damage wasn't as bad as most had feared...
Dennis leaves modest damage in weary Florida

Though the storm has been over for less than 24 hours, the clean-up has already begun: Clean up Begins

And in the wake of the storm, the Florida panhandle looks again like paradise: A Perfect Monday Morning

As for our next storm, the NHC says:
"While there is presently some easterly shear with this system... as well as marginal thermodynamics ...the environment is expected to become more favorable for development in both regards over the next few days. Given this...slow but steady strengthening is anticipated over the next 72 hours...and the official forecast is in good agreement with ships and GFDL guidance. The GFDL...which develops the depression only slowly at first...continues to make the cyclone a significant hurricane in the Caribbean." --FORECASTER FRANKLIN
For an up-to-date "spaghetti model" view: Weather Underground.
For an explanation of the models: National Hurricane Center (NOAA)

Spaghetti Models
From this morning's NHC discussion of TD #5:
"The official forecast ... which is a little south of the previous forecast...is a blend of the GFDL and NOGAPS models. It is perhaps of interest to note that the NOGAPS ... which had only a so-so year last year ... is currently the best performing Atlantic track model so far in 2005 ... and the FSU Superensemble...which won hands down last year ... is struggling a bit." --FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NOGAPS is represented above in blue and GFDL is represented in red. The storm is currently about 1200 miles east of the windward islands with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

Sunday, July 10, 2005

Dennis Makes Landfall In Florida

Dennis Makes Landfall
Hurricane Dennis has made landfall on Santa Rosa Island between Navarre Beach and Pensacola Beach, Florida. The local news reported sustained winds of 120 mph, which means Dennis was a category three 'cane as it came ashore. Our thoughts and hopes are with the people in Dennis' path right now. More info...

On the peninsula, the worst is over. It's hot again. The sun peeks out every now and then. The wind still howls faintly, but the storm has mostly passed.

For news on how the Tampa Bay area fared Bay News 9 has some decent coverage.

Feel compelled to help? Try the Red Cross National Disaster Relief Fund. It's tax deductible.

But wait, there's more...


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION....AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Hang on. We're in for a wild summer.

Hurricane Dennis Drenches Gulf Coast

Dennis is now a category four hurricane. Our hearts and minds are with our fellow hurricane-weary souls on the northern Gulf Coast, where the impact of Dennis will be catastrophic -- at best. The forecast track takes it right to the folks who suffered through Ivan last year. I can't imagine the horror of watching Dennis approach now. All I can say is that the peninsula feels for you; we're watching and praying.

The storm is a couple hundred miles out to sea, yet it managed to deliver some nasty weather, including tornadic activity and flooding to the Sun Coast. We woke up to howling wind and pounding rain at about 5:00 this morning. As the outer bands pass through, we get small tornadoes, waterspouts and some microburst activity throughout the area. We opened the hunker bunker yesterday, but it wasn't necessary. It was really just an excuse to party and eat Chef James' cooking.

Flooding is a major concern on the barrier islands and near the intracoastal waterways. The picture at right shows this morning's high tide in Cortez. Sarasota Bay has pretty much taken over our friend's yard. Good thing he's the Captain; he's going to need a boat to get out of there today.

Our friend who lives on Anna Maria Island just called and said the beach where we always frolic is gone. "The water is right up to the steps of the houses and some of the rocks [that form a retaining wall there] are just gone," he said.

He's worried about the next storm...all of us are worried. This radar image from intellicast.com shows the energy just streaming off of the coast of Africa and strong thunderstorms building once again near the Caribbean Sea. The question isn't if we will have another hurricane, but when.

Though it's been a bad tropical storm, Manatee County has had very minimal damage and flooding. We were lucky. Again. But after last year's season, no one seems quite ready to breathe a sigh of relief. Maybe in November.

Saturday, July 09, 2005

Hurricane Dennis Update

Courtesy NOAA
Dennis RGB Dennis is brushing past the Florida Keys and pounding Key West with sustained tropical storm force winds and gusts nearing 70 mph. Power is out all over Key West and damage reports are coming in already. Many people there are still rebuilding from last year as are the people who are now preparing for a direct hit on the northern Gulf coast. Landfall is projected between the western Florida panhandle and the short stretch of Alabama coastline, both of which got slammed last year by Ivan.

As Dennis passed over Cuba, it weakened from a category four to a category one hurricane. Now that it has emerged into the Gulf of Mexico, it is beginning to restrengthen and is now a category two. It's expected to continue gaining strength over the warm Gulf, which is a hurricane-feeding 90 degrees right now.

We had some intense squalls last night as the outer band of Dennis passed over us and a repeat performance this morning when another band passed through. We're on the dangerous side of the storm, so depending on how far east Dennis tracks, we could see some tornadic activity and perhaps even some microbursts. We're hoping Dennis continues its westerly motion as it makes its way north, which will keep it a few hundred miles offshore. We'll still see high water and Anna Maria Island will likely see some flooding. Inland areas still suffering from heavy rainfall and rivers above flood stage will be the hardest hit.

We're in for more squalls and bad weatherTampa Local Radar overall, to be sure. The lightning has been very intense, but the winds haven't been too bad yet. The radar picture at right (courtesy baynews9.com) shows the intense activity as the bands pass over the Florida peninsula.

The only bonus here is that the storm might help clear out the red tide that has been plaguing us since February. Or, according to the Bradenton Herald, the storm could provide it with just enough fresh water to create additional nutrients. Read more from the Herald...

Red tide is a toxic algae bloom that the press and state officials downplay because they don't want to scare off the tourists. As if a beach reeking of dead fish wouldn't drive people away. Besides killing fish and marine mammals, red tide causes respiratory problems in land mammals, like humans. Neither the short nor the long term effects of exposure to red tide are understood, but the mainstream media will tell you that red tide is not dangerous. Of course you can still go swimming and fishing. Just don't swallow the water or eat any shellfish. And if you start to cough and sneeze and feel like you're choking to death, you should probably leave the beach. Um...duh.

Our own Mote Marine is trying to understand how red tide affects humans, but the data is incomplete and so far inconclusive. Okay, this isn't News from Red Tide Land, so I'll stop there.

More later as Dennis continues churning up the Gulf coast.

Friday, July 08, 2005

This Just in From Cuba

HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

Reports from the Cuban Meteorlogical Service and Civil Defense through HAM radio operators indicate a wind gust to 149 MPH occurred at Cienfuegos, Cuba around 1:30 PM EDT. More than 85 percent of the powerlines were down and extensive damage has occurred to the communications infastructure.

FORECASTER STEWART

Link

A Very Pretty Picture of Hurricane Dennis

From the NOAA Satellilte and Information Service: Operational Significant Event Imagery

Dennis: Category Four Menace

Courtesy NOAA
Sorry I missed posting yesterday (it's a long story and more about me than you want to know) as Dennis jogged west and then east again. All in all, an exciting day for the ol' Menace.

High pressure is holding over the Florida peninsula, so it appears at this time that Dennis is will skirt the west coast of the peninsula and make landfall on the north gulf coast somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle. Though we are currently outside the "cone" of uncertainty, this storm still bears watching as is has joggged east to west and back several times already.

Dennis made landfall at Hispaniola yesterday and is currently pounding Cuba. A t least four people were killed in Haiti when a bridge collapsed and mud slides are said to have taken several lives in both Haiti and Jamaica, but the information coming out of the region is still spotty.

In this image, you can see Dennis's violent storms heading over Cuba. According to the Associated Press, Dennis packed 150 mph winds as it tore through Guantanamo, knocking down a guard tower at the U.S. terrorist prison camp there.

Evacuations have been ordered for the Florida Keys and tropical storm and flood warnings and watches have been posted for the southern Gulf coast of Florida. A tropical storm watch has been posted for our neighborhood as has a flood watch for both Saturday and Sunday. The local weather forecasters say we can expect high seas, high winds and lot of rain.

Though we aren't expecting a direct hit in the Tampa area, the track could change at any moment as we learned last year with Charley. The picture at left shows Dennis' east-west jogs over the last 36 hours. (Courtesy TBO.com.) The course changes are caused by weak areas in the edge of the high pressure system currently in place over the peninsula. Since the strength of the pressure area is not uniform (as it appears on television graphics), as Dennis skirts the high pressure ridge, stronger pressure areas push the storm west while weaker pressure areas allow it to shift eastward. It's probably still too early to tell how close Dennis will come to the Florida Gulf coast. A direct hit is unlikely at this time, but not completely impossible.

Whether Dennis makes a direct hit or not, we expect to have a fairly crappy weekend. I have to say: I cannot handle another "weekend hurricane season." Every hurricane that hit our area last year came through on a weekend, including Labor Day. I mean, we don't get "snow days" at work in Florida; we should get at least one or two "hurricane days."

We're not planning to shutter the house unless there is a dramatic shift in the projected track tonight, but we will open the Hunker Bunker this weekend for our friends on the island or nearer the Gulf who tend to lose power and/or water even in tropical storm force winds. (You know who you are. No need to call...just come on by.)

Wednesday, July 06, 2005

Cindy Hits Louisiana...Greedy Oil Men Hit all of Us

Correction to this post and thank those of you who pointed it out...I don't know what I was thinking...I know the Saffir-Simpson Scale by heart. Cindy came ashore at 70mph, 4mph short of hurricane strength...

Tropical Storm Cindy was near hurricane strength at 112 70 mph before making landfall near New Orleans. Hurricane strength is defined as sustained winds of 119 74 mph. I bet those Louisiana folks were counting their blessings that it wasn't a hurricane.

Cindy flooded streets, tore down power lines and twisted trees in the historic French Quarter district of the Mardi Gras city and left about a 1/4 million people without power throughout Louisiana. She dumped about ten inches of rain on the region on her trek inland.

Meanwhile, the headline in Forbes is: "Oil Prices Top $60 a Barrel on Storm Fears." While it's certain that drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico were suspended and production might just suffer a little bit, let's get a grip folks. This was an itty-bitty storm. Itty-bitty-Teeny-weeny storm. If this is what we have to look forward to this season, we'll be at $5 per gallon at the pumps in no time. (Personally, I'd pay $10 a gallon if they'd stop drilling in our beautiful Gulf. But I'm pretty sure that's just me. Sigh.) Read the story...

Cindy is now just a tropical depression, a term that begins to take on many meanings in Florida at this time of year. But wait! There's more! We also get this fabulous Tropical-Storm-Soon-To-Be-Major-Hurricane named Dennis. At no extra charge!

All the forecast tracks so far say Dennis will hit the Florida Panhandle. But, funny (peculiar, not ha-ha) thing about hurricane tracks: hurricanes don't always follow them. Ask Port Charlotte. So, if you're in Florida, you're in the cone of uncertainty at this point and you can't afford to take it lightly. More on Dennis in the next post...

Tuesday, July 05, 2005

Named Storm #4: Dennis

Courtesy NOAA

As predicted, TD #4 became Tropical Storm Dennis this morning. The five-day path shows Tampa Bay in the "cone of uncertainty," meaning it could strike here or not.

By all accounts, Dennis should be our first hurricane of the season.

Something tells me we'll be spending some quality time with plywood and tapcons this weekend. And so it begins...

Tropical Storm Cindy and Warming up for Dennis

Cindy and DennisCindy is about right in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, projected to make landfall somewhere along the coast of Louisiana late tonight or tomorrow morning. At 7am CDT, the center was located near latitude 26.4 north...longitude 90.4 west and sustained winds were about 45mph.

The Florida peninsula is under high pressure, which keeps Cindy away from us, pushing her toward the North Central Gulf coast. A tropical storm watch is in effect from east of Pascagoula to Destin, Florida. Cindy is a poorly organized storm for the moment, but the NHC predicts it might strengthen somewhat before landfall.

Meanwhile, to our south, Tropical Depression #4 is strengthenging in the Caribbean. As of 5am EDT TD #4 was nearing tropical storm force as was located 670 KM South-Southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. TD #4 will most likely become Dennis before the end of the day.

I don't like the looks of the-storm-that-will-be-Dennis. It's forming it just about the same area that Ivan did in 2004 and it appears there will be plenty of time for strengthening as the NHC expects its forward speed to slow. It's forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and will be spinning just south of our latitude early Sunday morning.

Our hurricane kit and shutters are at the ready, but we'll take stock of both this week to ensure we're as prepared as one can possible be when the hounds of hell come calling. As always, check here for information as to whether we'll be evacuating or opening the hunker bunker.

Wednesday, June 29, 2005

Hellllloooooo Bret!

Tropical storm Bret arrived yesterday in the Bay of Campeche, which is pronounced "CAHm - pӘch-EH," not "Campeechy" as it is so mangled by our local newcasters.*

Bret began as a cluster of organized thunderstorms organized as Tropical Depression Two or TD #2 as those of us so enviably in the know would call it. At some point between 8 and 11 last night, it strengthened enough to become a tropical storm and hence got its name.

Bret made landfall near Tuxpan, México some time after 8:00 this morning and has now weakened to a rainmaker. It is, thankfully, dying out.

More info on Bret: National Hurricane Center.

Current counts are posted at right.

*Please pardon me for using "eh" in place of the "long a" symbol; I couldn't find a character entity to render it properly.

Monday, June 13, 2005

Arlene Pisses on Florida & Another Waiting in the Wings

Now we've been hit by our first tropical storm of the season. Doesn't it feel better to get that out of the way? Arlene came ashore near the Florida panhandle on Saturday, drenching the peninsula in rain on her way through.

Check out the image archives on the NHC site to see her final path. She's now a non-event. Just an inland rainmaker.

All we saw here was a strong south wind, which was actually quite nice because it gets blistering hot when the storms blow through. Arlene ruined the scheduled Poker Run (by boat) over the weekend, but that was the sum total of the destruction here.

There is another area of disturbance in the Caribbean now. Some disorganized thunderstorms the talking weather heads say we'll have to look out for. I don't know about anyone else, but this is a little early for me.

Friday, June 10, 2005

Birth and Insurance Rates on the Rise

Seems last year's hurricane season created a baby boom in Florida, which is now manifesting itself in maternity wards across the state. Some hospitals report an increase in deliveries of more than 20% for June.

As if it's not hot and sweaty enough without air conditioning, people inexplicably felt the need to get hotter and sweatier...apparently with each other. And without birth control. One woman I saw on the local news said, "We were bored." There's a story to tell the kid: "You were conceived out of boredom." Story...

In other news, insurance companies, fed up with actually having to pay claims after collecting millions of dollars of premiums, are planning to raise rates and/or cancel coverage for Florida homeowners. Feel the love, eh?


Cincinnati Indemnity Co.
wants 36.7% higher premiums from Floridians.

You're in Greedy Hands with Allstate. They didn't mind collecting premiums right up until June 1, but now, suddenly, Florida's just too risky for them.

Randy Schultz's opinion piece reveals Allstate's neat "sleight of hand" accounting tricks designed to fleece Florida homeowners.

And if you think Jeb is going to help, think again. He's part of the dynasty that is firmly sewed into the pocket linings of big business in America (and Saudi Arabia, but that's a topic for another blog.) Hold on to your hats, Florida. You're about to get screwed by Mother Nature, insurers and the state legislature. Next year's baby boom will be interesting...new moms interviewed from their new homes in the back seats of their cars.

Tropical Storm Arlene Edges East

Arlene's projected path has shifted a little eastward. Is it just me or does it seem a bit unfair and a bit of a bad omen that the first storm of the season is A) so early B) probably going to smack into Florida. I mean, really, didn't Florida get enough last year?


Courtesy NOAA/NHC

Here's a very pretty picture of Arlene. Pretty, that is, if you aren't still traumatized from last year's radar blob overdose.


Courtesy NOAA/NHC

Arlene is now poised to ruin our weekend with rain and clouds and wind. Don't these storms know that weekdays are the best time to hit? Jeez, you'd think they're working for our employers.

So, hello from HurricaneLand where it's deja vu all over again.

Thursday, June 09, 2005

Arlene Projected to Blow by Florida Panhandle

And so it begins. We have our first named storm. It started as TD #1 yesterday. I was just getting ready to blog on it when our power went out due to an everyday summer storm. Rather than sit and sweat inside a dark, quiet house, I went to the Cortez Kitchen with a friend and had a sandwich, leaving my husband and our friend the Captain behind to guard the house (the garage door was up and there was no electricity to power it down.) Seems I forgot about blogging and TD #1 after a couple of beers. Imagine that.

But this moring, there it was: Tropical Storm Arlene.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005

...SHIP REPORT INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON...
As I write, it's just south of Cuba, projected to come into the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow and screw up our weekend weather. I don't know about anyone else, but I'm thinking that starting the season with a storm in the Gulf is not exactly a sign of good things to come. The water has only recently reached 88 degrees, so maybe there won't be enough energy in the Gulf to feed Arlene.

The forecast track (HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa) takes Arlene just west of the Panhandle. If we learned anything last year we learned this: Don't focus on the line. Focus on the cone.

Image Courtessy NOAA/NHC

So, how's your hurricane kit looking?

Friday, June 03, 2005

Florida Hurricane Survival Guide For Newbies - Introduction



Florida Hurricane Survival Guide For Newbies

By Loretta Cochran

Introduction
How We Got Here from There

It seems everyone in Florida is from somewhere else, so I thought I'd begin by telling you how and why we moved 3200 miles to sit right smack dab in the center of Hurricane Land.

My husband and I moved to lovely Bradenton, Florida from Vancouver, Washington in May of 2002. Also known as “the other Vancouver,” our former haunt is a small suburb of Portland, Oregon, a mid-sized city much like Tampa, which lies just across the Columbia River. The area boasts an average of 32 clear days a year, which the tourist guidebooks will tell you is perfect weather for the Redwood Rainforest. It is also good weather for ducks—not the Ducks, but real ducks, which should not be confused with the University of Oregon’s football team as real ducks are much tougher and have nicer uniforms.

In that climate, water falls on one’s head for an average of 333 days per year, except at those magical times when the Arctic winds shift from northerly to northeasterly and come screaming out of the Columbia Gorge with the force of the Furies themselves. This effectively transforms otherwise miserably cold raindrops to freezing shards of glasslike water propelled at one’s face at a perpendicular angle by 40-mile per hour shrieking winds. Locally, this is called “freezing rain.” You can simply think of it as sleet on steroids; it pierces the skin with the efficiency of a disgruntled acupuncturist and makes you yearn for a gentler climes. Like Alaska.

During one such bout with what Northeasterners would call a “real” winter, the novelty thermometer on our patio read “pretty cold” then “really cold” then “freaking cold” and finally “how can you [expletive deleted] live here?” It was without a doubt the best question ever asked by an inanimate object. Jim and I were certainly stumped.

So, with grand plans to live as paupers in paradise, we left behind highways that resembled skating rinks, skies that never cleared and incomes in the upper tier of the upper middle class. We packed up our most valued possessions, our permafrost toes, perpetually runny noses and ran, seeking sun, sand, palm trees and subsistence wages in Sunny Florida. We were not disappointed on any of the above, particularly the latter. It seemed as if our strategy was playing out beautifully. For the first two summers, life seemed idyllic despite our depression that the going wages in our fields of work were one-third to one-half of what they were out west. The quality of our lives had improved so much that it scarcely mattered. Every weekend seemed like a vacation, so who needed money? Who needed to get away from it all? Get away from what? White sand beaches? Dreamy turquoise water? A close-knit community unlike any we’d ever known and into which we were almost immediately accepted?

We swam in the ocean nearly every day. On our first 4th of July, we encountered a manatee in the warm Gulf waters. I learned to snorkel. Jim caught a black tip shark on his first fishing trip. I fished in saltwater for the first time. My first catch was a toadfish. I don't know if you've ever seen one, but it is one of the absolutely ugliest creatures on the planet and when I pulled it out of the water I screamed like I'd pulled up the devil itself, which by all logic it seemed that I had. But I still loved my new home.

We watched the “Tropical Updates” on the local news station with only casual interest. After all, the Northwest was famous for its erupting volcanoes, sudden and violent earthquakes, mudslides and ice storms that shut down power grids and entire cities for days on end. We’d both breezed through several six-plus magnitude earthquakes. I had personally witnessed the second large eruption of Mt. St. Helens from a distance of less than forty miles and somehow lived through the ash fallout. We were coming from an extremely harsh climate and were no strangers to natural disasters; we were foolishly brave. That is, until 2004 when it seemed every hurricane had its eye on Florida.

It wasn’t as if we were unaware of the danger of hurricanes when we chose Florida. Who could forget the widely reported devastation of Andrew? We didn’t live in a cave, contrary to some East Coast perceptions of Pacific Northwesterners, a perception that envisions us as raised-by-wolves, animal skin-clad hunters and gatherers with highly developed canine teeth perfect for ripping flesh from the bones of our kill. Though it is at times helpful to perpetuate this stereotype, for example, when arriving in the checkout line at the Winn-Dixie, it’s not even remotely accurate. We had cable TV and indoor plumbing and everything. We were as versed as any American in national and world events. (Okay, that’s not saying much. I’ll give you that.)

The horrific things we didn’t know about when we moved to Florida include astonishingly prolific lightning storms, palmetto bugs (roaches, just bigger and crunchier when you step on them), the voracious appetites of unseen noseeums, mosquitoes the size of SUVs, poisonous snakes, fire ants, red tide, filthy Florida politics and the fact that no-name storms can be as lethal as quaintly monikered hurricanes. But those surprises are topics for my next books: Florida Outdoor Survival Guide for Newbies: Fun With Deet and Florida Political Survival Guide for Newbies: Come On…You Didn’t Really Think Your Vote Would Be Counted.

But I digress.

We moved here with the intent to live and work here, and to become as much a part of our community as we were in Vancouver, which is to say we expected to carry with us the tradition of a morning nod in the direction of our neighbors whose names we didn’t know and at whose noisy children we routinely directed mumbled curses. Little did we know that we’d settle in a community just outside Florida’s last remaining fishing village and form profound bonds with people we’d known for mere months—even before the dastardly hurricane season of 2004 when it seemed at times that we all needed each other more than we needed oxygen.

A hurricane bearing down on your neighborhood schools you in both the value of and your responsibility to your community in an instant. And that’s what the first hurricane of the season, Charley, did for us when we turned on the Tropical Update and saw that line up the center of the "cone of probability" (kind of like the cone of silence, but less effective.) That line was overlaid right on top of our precious newfound community. That scary black line in the center of the cone passed right through our neighborhood. Right through our house. Right through everything that had made us so very happy for the previous two years. And we had no idea what we were supposed to do.

Next up: Chapter One: Two Rules

Wednesday, June 01, 2005

First Day of Hurricane Season

Today is the first day of hurricane season and for the occasion, the venerable Dr. William M. Gray et al. at the Tropical Meteorology Project have revised the forecast upward. If you listen closely you can hear the sound of an entire state letting out a heavy sigh of resignation...tinged with worry...tinged with terror.

If you are warmed by numbers, you will be happy to learn that statistically speaking, it is highly unlikely that Florida will be hammered by 170 hurricanes again this year. But before you become too complacent, remember this: after every hurricane last year, someone invariably said "statistically speaking, it's highly unlikely we'll get hit again." And yet a major hurricane made landfall in Florida roughly every ten days between mid-July and the end of August. I feel fully justified for hating my college statistics class.

Dr. Gray's new forecast:
2005 Forecast
Forecast Activity as of: 04/01/0505/31/05
Named Storms (NS)
13
15
Named Storm Days (NSD)
65
75
Hurricanes (H) 7
8
Hurricane Days (HD) 35
45
Intense Hurricanes (IH) 3
4
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) 7
11
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) 135 170
Check the right sidebar for a 2004 comparison and link to last year's scoreboard.
Dr. Gray and his team do not expect El Nino conditions to develop this summer. They also predict an above-average probability of US landfalls this season. Oh joy.
Regional Probability Forecast:

Probabilities For At Least One Major (Category 3-4-5) Hurricane Landfall On Each Of The Following Coastal Areas:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 77% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 59% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean and in the Bahamas
In my last post, I promised you excerpts from my new book, Florida Hurricane Survival Guide for Newbies. I have not forgotten. I decided to wait until the beginning of season, which is now (sigh) here. I'll post the introductory chapter within 24 hours.

Tuesday, April 05, 2005

2005 Hurricane Season Forecast

Only 76 Days Until Hurricane Season Begins - Do you know where your flashlight batteries are?

As the 2005 hurricane season approaches, The Tropical Meteorology Project team predicts another wild season for the Atlantic: "We foresee a slightly above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005. Also, an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is anticipated. We do not, however, expect anything close to the U.S. landfalling hurricane activity of 2004."

You may think that's good news. The problem is, hurricanes rarely take their marching orders from meteorologists. Here are the forecasts issued on December 4, 2004 and a subseqent forecast issued April 1, 2005 (presumably not an April Fool's joke:
2005 Forecast
Forecast Activity as of: 12/03/0404/01/05
Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 11 13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 55 65
Hurricanes (H)(5.9) 6 7
Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5) 25 35
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3 3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0) 6 7
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 115 135
Check the right sidebar for a 2004 comparison and link to last year's scoreboard.
If you haven't started preparing yet, it's time to start thinking about it.
Regional Probability Forecast:

Probabilities For At Least One Major (Category 3-4-5) Hurricane Landfall On Each Of The Following Coastal Areas:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 49% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 39% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
In the coming days and weeks, I will be posting excerpts from my new book, Florida Hurricane Survival Guide for Newbies. The material is drawn directly from my first encounter with hurricanes in the maddening season of 2004. If you're new to Florida, I hope the lessons I learned last year will help you through your first hurricane season.

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Despite storm's fury, Punta Gorda ready to vote - ARE YOU?

Floridians hoping for no repeat of 2000's wrangling
Punta Gorda, Fla. -- With talk of lawsuits filling the air, the race for Florida's 27 electoral votes is already being compared to the rancorous recount of 2000. In Punta Gorda, they are comparing it to Hurricane Charley...
Read the story and then GO VOTE!!!

Sunday, October 31, 2004

On our fifth weekend without a hurricane...

I went fishing yesterday. Caught a buzz, but that's about it. The water was green and glassy and surprisingly free of traffic considering the snow birds are beginning to arrive. It was sheer bliss.

Today, the boys took down the wall they framed in behind the garage door when Ivan was threatening. The shutters are stored. My car is in its home.

A nod to the hurricane gods: we know we still have one month to go.


Friday, October 29, 2004

A Poem: Twas the night before Frances

I received this via email. I have no idea who to credit for it...

Twas the night before Frances
When all through the state
Not a gas pump was pumping
Not a store open late

All the plywood was hung
On the windows with care
Knowing that a hurricane
Soon would be there

The children were ready
With flashlights in hand
While bands from the hurricane
Covered over the land

And mamma with her Mag-Lite
And I in my cap
Had just filled the bath tub
For flushing our crap

When out on the lawn
There arose such a clatter
I sprang from the closet
To see what was the matter

The trees on the fence
And the neighbor's roof torn
Gave the fear of us dying
In this terrible storm

With a little wind gust
So lively and quick
I remembered quite clearly
Our walls weren't brick

More rapid than eagles
Her courses they came
And she whistled, and wafted
And surged all the same
Off shingles! Off sidings!
Off rooftops! Off power!
Down trees! Down fences!
Down trailers! Down towers!

In the center of Florida
She continued to maul
Screaming Blow Away!
Blow Away! Blow Away All!

As wind ripped and tossed
The debris through the sky
I peeked out the shutters
At cars floating by

So go to the safe-room
My family did do
With a portable radio
And batteries too

And then, in a twinkling
I heard on the set
The end was not coming
For a few hours yet!

As I calmed down the kids
And was turning around
Through the window it came
With a huge crashing sound

A tree branch it was
All covered in soot
The wind blew it smack-dab
On top of my foot

A bundle of twigs
Now lay in a stack
And my living room looks
Like it was under attack

The wind - how it howled!
The storm - very scary!
Myself and the family
Were all too unwary
The dangers of hurricanes
Are serious, you know
They are taken for granted
As Frances did show

With the winds dying down
And the danger beneath
I noticed my tool shed
Was missing its sheath

So I grabbed my last tarp
And nailed it on down
Then I got in my car
And I headed to town

The traffic was awful
And stores had no ice
My five gallon cooler
Would have to suffice

Generators were scarce
Not one left in town
There were trees on the roads
And power lines down

FEMA was ready
With people to work
Electrical companies
Came in from New York

And in the midst of
This peculiar routine
Another storm emerged
Named Hurricane Jeanne

I sprang to the car
And gave my family a whistle
Then away we all went
Like a Tomahawk missile

You could hear us exclaim
As we drove out of sight
"The hell with this place,
Vermont seems just right!"

Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Queen of England Donates $5 to Hurricane Relief in Former British Territories

Undisclosed sum must be monarch-speak for paltry amount
The Queen lent her support today to the people of the Caribbean whose lives have been devastated by hurricanes in recent months.

She has donated an undisclosed sum of money to a British Red Cross Caribbean Hurricane Appeal which will go towards helping them rebuild their communities.
Maybe she thinks her generosity will bring them back to throne?

Read the story

Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Hurricane Relief Funds On The Way - Hope You Don't Need That Air Conditioning Any Time Soon

If you can prove that you need assistance and have exhausted all other avenues, such as FEMA assistance, you might be eligible from some of the money generous Americans from all over the country donated to hurricane-embattled Florida during August and September. But don't spend that check just yet, it's up to the Salvation Army and the United Way to decide the criteria for victim assistance, which they plan to do - next month(!!)

Read the story...

2004 Hurricane Onslaught

Florida makes the news, dubiously, as usual.
ATLANTA, Oct. 26 /PRNewswire/ -- Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne created chaos in Florida and impacted much of the United States over the past few months. On October 31, at 8:30 p.m. ET, meteorologist and The Weather Channel stormtracker Jim Cantore will present a special half-hour primetime program titled "2004 Hurricane Onslaught," which documents this year's incredible -- and memorable -- hurricane season. The important program will take a close look at this historic and unrelenting hurricane season, while answering a number of viewers' questions, i.e. "why do hurricanes spawn tornadoes and generate extensive flooding" and "did global warming cause this active hurricane season?"

Read the press release...

Monday, October 25, 2004

Hurricane Unearths Pieces o' Eight - Yarrrgh! Avast Ye Mateys!

Holy cow! And all we did was try to protect our home! I feel like a slacker now.
(KRT) INDIALANTIC, Fla. — It is the stuff of pirate legends, but do not waste your breath asking Joel Ruth on what stretch of Florida's Treasure Coast he found his hoard of Spanish pieces of eight - waiting to be scratched out of the sand with bare fingers and toes.

Treasure hunters guard their secrets.

Especially, if like Ruth, they have just found about 180 near-mint silver coins worth more than $40,000.

To most Floridians, hurricane season is the time to board up windows and dread the worst. But to professional and amateur treasure seekers, it is the time to hit the beaches and hunt lost riches.

Read the story...

This Just In: A Stunning Underreaction From Starbucks

So maybe I shouldn't be surprised that a company whose frontline employees barely make enough to live indoors in the state of Florida (owing, in part, to our meager minimum wage) would make such a weak gesture to its employees. But I'm always surprised at idiocy and shameful behavior. Perhaps $25k will be enough, since most of their employees probably live in their cars anyway.
Starbucks Coffee Co. announced today it is contributing $25,000 to the Florida Hurricane Relief Fund on behalf of its Florida employees.

Swallow a Tums and then...Read the story...

My advice to Starbucks? Dig a little deeper. And then use that pocket change to pay your people a living wage instead of staging this pathetic attempt to get a little publicity and maybe hear your rich friends say, "Awww...aren't you generous!" Better yet, pay your employees' insurance deductibles. Or help them find a new place to live if their homes were destroyed. Do something - anything - meaningful to help your own.

Friday, October 22, 2004

Just What Floridians Don't Want to Hear

Okay, not what we need or want to hear. But we're not the only ones. Ask Haiti. Ask North Carolina.

WASHINGTON, Oct. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- With four hurricanes and tropical storms hitting the United States in a recent five-week period, 2004 already is being called "The Year of the Hurricane." But this year's unusually intense period of destructive weather activity could be a harbinger of what is to come as the effects of global warming become even more pronounced in future years, according to leading experts who participated today in a Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School briefing.

The recent onslaught of four major tropical weather disturbances -- Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne -- that did so much damage in the United States and nearby Haiti have spurred new questions about the relationship between hurricanes and global warming. While experts can't say that climate change will result in more hurricanes in the future, there is growing evidence and concern that the tropical storms that do happen will be more intense than in the past. Fueling concerns about the link between global warming and hurricanes is a new study on hurricane intensity published on September 28, 2004 in "The Journal of Climate." The study used extensive computer modeling to analyze 1,300 future hurricanes and projected a major increase in the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades.

Read the story...

[Duh] Center Line of Hurricane Forecast Track Not Always Accurate

Officials are considering removing the center line imposed on the hurricane forecast tracks we see on television and in newspapers.

Emergency planners think it's a good idea because people tend to focus on the line instead of the wider cone of probability and, if they don't live near the center line, they might fail to make preparations. (Duh. Paint a bullseye on a map and where do you think the human eye will be drawn?)
Read the full story from the Tampa Trib...

Tourism officials don't like the idea so much. "Without the line, it will look like the whole state of Florida is going to be hit," they whined. Hmmm...if we have a hurricane coming, isn't it a pretty good idea to tell tourists to STAY the HELL away? I mean, forget Floridians' angst over Ontario drivers and even forget the tourists' health and safety (provided Florida has already had one or two swipes at their Visa cards, of course) and remember this: We need every hotel room in the state because the shelters keep collapsing on people.
Read their idiot remarks...

Thursday, October 14, 2004

And Watch Your Rates RISE!

Allstate, who already refuses to write flood insurance in the state of Florida, might also pull out of hazard insurance, it seems. Since they're our carrier, we're anticipating sharp rate increases and possibly loss of coverage. I hope we can afford to stay in our home when it's all said and done. The sad thing? We didn't even sustain any damage yet we might be forced to sell because insurers don't plan well.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Allstate Corp. (ALL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the No. 2 U.S. home and auto insurer, warned on Wednesday its third-quarter profits would fall well short of expectations due to more than $1 billion in hurricane-related payouts.

The Northbrook, Illinois-based insurer said it now expects to earn net income of 9 cents in the third quarter and operating income of 8 cents per diluted share. Analysts anticipated the company would earn 24 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

The news came just hours after Allstate said it would make Florida homeowner insurance policies harder to obtain after four of the 10 most costly hurricanes in U.S. history slammed into the state within a span of just six weeks.

Read the Story...while you can still afford internet access.

Wednesday, October 13, 2004

This Just In: Sharks Don't Like Hurricanes Either!

Sharks are smarter than the average bear...
SARASOTA, Fla. -- While Floridians were heading away from areas threatened by hurricanes, biologists say sharks in the area were acting the same way.

At a two-day conference at Mote Marine Laboratory in Sarasota, biologists presented reports on the behavior of tagged sharks that they tracked as Hurricane Charley came ashore. They compared the results of the study to similar findings about the behavior of sharks during Tropical Storm Gabrielle in September 2001.

Read the full story...

Tuesday, October 12, 2004

Here's a Shocker: Insurance Companies Don't Want to Pay After Collecting Premiums

I know, you could've knocked me over with a feather, but it seems that insurance companies are more than happy to collect premiums, but aren't quite as excited about paying claims.

Who'd have thunk it, huh?

Read the story...

Monday, October 11, 2004

Experts Can't Fully Explain Shifts In Hurricane Activity

TAMPA - A decade ago something happened in the complex
relationship of Atlantic Ocean currents, air pressure,
salinity, temperature and other conditions not
completely understood that ushered a new era of
hurricanes.

Full Story

Florida Tries To Stop Hurricane-Forced Canker Spread

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- State officials have decided
to make a stand against citrus canker in Palm Beach
County.

Experts are worried the hurricane winds could have
spread citrus canker northward into the state's citrus
belt, which has already been raked by the storms
themselves.

Full
Story...


Hurricane puts projects on hold

In news from Charlotte County, civil projects will
have to wait for hurricane recovery...


Full Story...



Sunday, October 10, 2004

Sub-Tropical Storm Nichole

Not a threat to Florida, but could bring a lot of rain to the Northeast. Since they've been getting the tail end of the Florida hurricanes all season, they don't need more rain, either.

Read more...

Matthew No Threat

Tropical Storm Matthew is no threat to Florida. We'll get some rain, which we don't need, but we won't be boarding and hoarding this weekend.

Yesterday was a beautiful day - hot and breezy. We worked on some projects so didn't get out in it much. The hurricane season has devoured our desire to do summer things. This is the first time in my life I've been ready for summer to be over. I want to take down the plywood, open my garage door (it's walled in right now) and not hear the words "Tropical Update" on the news.

Friday, October 08, 2004

Tropical Update: More On The Way?

530 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2004 FOR THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS THAT EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECASTER
LAWRENCE $$



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Thursday, October 07, 2004

FEMA Neglects to Pay Hurricane Victims' Rent. Polk County Victims Served With Eviction Notices

Okay, so they're living in travel trailers. They've lost most of their belongings. They have no one to turn to except FEMA. And, true to form, FEMA flips them the bird. Hey, at least they're consistently incompetent.

Story...

Bill aimed at reducing hurricane damage passes Florida Senate

More changes to Florida's building codes on the way.

This means, if we do lose our homes in a hurricane, it will be four times as expensive to rebuild and our insurance coverage won't be enough to cover the new codes - that is, if the insurance company actually honors the contract and pays.

Story...

Ivan Causes Oil Pipeline Leaks in Gulf

By CAIN BURDEAU
Associated Press Writer

NEW ORLEANS (AP) -- Hurricane Ivan punched holes in the network of oil and natural gas pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico, causing oil and gas to leak out at numerous points along the thousands of miles of pipelines.

By Wednesday, nearly two weeks after Ivan hit the Gulf Coast, the Minerals Management Service and the U.S. Coast Guard were unsure how many oil spills were caused by cracked pipelines. Most of the pipelines in the hurricane path were shut in and being inspected.

In one spill at a Shell Oil Co. pipeline about 30 miles east of Venice, near the mouth of the Mississippi River, crews had gathered about 101,000 gallons of water polluted with oil.

Read the story...

Tuesday, October 05, 2004

Frogs, Frogs Everywhere

Florida overrun by tree frogs and bufo toads.

Senior citizens complain about the noise, try to pass ordinance against frog songs after 10 PM.

Story...

A Sight For More Than Sore Eyes

Quoted from NOAA's Web site:
Active Tropical Cyclones
Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and the Eastern Pacific out to 140°W

Page last modified Tuesday, 5 Oct 2004 08:28:03 GMT
Atlantic & Caribbean
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
Perhaps two weekends in a row without a storm? Dare we dream?

Sunday, October 03, 2004

A Weekend Without A Hurricane

It's been a calm weekend - the first of many during which we did not have to prepare for an impending storm.

But there's the cleanup. Jeanne tore the west side off of a huge tree in our backyard and the debris is, well, a mess. We started working on it yesterday, but I couldn't continue. I stayed in the sun too long and ended up with heat exhaustion. I think I scared Jim; my face was as red as a tomato I was dizzy, seeing tracers around my head. I quit working and went inside, but I just couldn't cool off. Finally, I put my head and neck under cold water and kept it there until I felt my body temperature returning to normal.

A friend stopped by with a smoked mullet (from Cortez - best mullet in Florida) just in time to keep me from passing out. We devoured the mullet with cheese, grapes and crackers, washed down with Gatorade and water. I swear I've never had a better meal.

We had to remind ourselves that many hurricane casualties are a result of the clean-up work that has to be done in the ruthless Florida heat. If you think Florida isn't a harsh climate, you're wrong. It's just harsh in a different way than the northern states. Winters are reasonably mild, but the summers are brutal.

Still, I love Florida summers. I love the blinding heat, the warm water, the sticky evenings, the violent afternoon thunderstorms and the humidity laying thick over the state like a wet blanket.

Not crazy about the hurricanes, though.

Saturday, October 02, 2004

Can You Say "Duh?"

Candidates Worry That Floridians Are Not Paying Attention To Them
In a stunningly obvious piece, the Houston Chronicle reports that presidential candidates are having a tough time capturing the attention of Floridians.
"Without homes or electricity in some parts of the states, affected voters cannot be contacted by pollsters or precinct captains. Media advertising goes wasted in some markets." Story...

Gee, I wonder if Floridians really care about answering polls or listening to the candidates sling crap at each other. I think not. Sure this is an important election, but jeez, give us a break.

Marketing 101: Let Florida recover before spending your time, effort and ad dollars here. Duh.

Lisa becomes a hurricane again in northern Atlantic

Finally, a storm that didn't pound Florida. Lisa is stronger, but will soon hit cold water and die.
Tropical Storm Lisa became a hurricane again Saturday in the northern Atlantic, but forecasters said it didn't threaten land and expected it to weaken over the day.

Hurricane Lisa had top sustained winds of 75 mph, just above the 74 mph threshold to become a hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

At 5 a.m. EST, Lisa was located 745 miles west-northwest of the Azores and moving northeast at 24 miles an hour.
Story...

Friday, October 01, 2004

Hurricane Jeanne Unearths WWII Bomb!

INDIAN RIVER COUNTY · Hurricane Jeanne's vicious winds and water did more than destroy a few homes in the Ocean Ridge subdivision. They also unveiled a 10-foot-long World War II bomb buried underneath a beachfront driveway...

Read the Story

Received in the Same RSS News Feed

I received both of these stories in a refresh of my RSS news feed today.
New hurricane prediction: Relatively quiet October
By MARTIN MERZER
Hurricane expert William Gray offered a ray of hope today to hurricane-weary Floridians: A relatively quiet finish to the hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30.

Gray and his team at Colorado State University predicted three named storms during October, two of which become hurricanes. Twelve named storms were born between July 31 and Sept. 30. Seven of them grew into hurricanes, six of them intense. The team predicted ''little activity'' in November.

Gray attributed the four hurricanes that struck Florida since August 13 to a tragic coincidence of atmospheric conditions and bad luck that produced ``a once-in-a-lifetime kind of year.''

''Although Floridians should always be prepared for landfalling hurricanes, they should not expect what we have experienced this year to become the norm for future years,'' he said, even though activity throughout the entire hurricane basin is expected to remain strong for many years to come.

And...right below it in the same feed, no less:
Hurricane guru predicts busy October
By John Kelly
FLORIDA TODAY

An active October could be ahead of hurricane-wrecked Florida.

Given what's happened in August and September, a leading forecaster today increased the predicted number of tropical storms and hurricanes that might form in the Atlantic this month.

The hurricane experts at Colorado State University predict October will bring three named tropical storms that would be named Matthew, Nicole and Otto.

The Colorado State team, led by nationally-known forecaster William Gray, says two of the storms could become hurricanes. The team foresees no Category 3 or stronger hurricanes.

The forecast approximately doubles what Gray's team had forecast earlier this year for October, an upward change attributed to the unprecedented amount of activity this season.

Four hurricanes have made landfall in August and September. All of them hit Florida. Three passed through Brevard County.

Landfall probability for the remainder of the 2004 season is now estimated to be slightly above the October-November average, the forecasters said in a report released today.

The forecasters see a 17 percent chance a hurricane will form and hit the United States in October.

The good news? The chance of a November storm is fairly minimal in almost any year. The season ends Nov. 30.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, also issues hurricane forecasters at the beginning of the season. But it does not issue monthly updates.

This season has been about twice as active as forecasters expected.

To date, 2004 included 12 named storms. That included three major storms named Charley, Ivan and Jeanne and a Category 2 hurricane called Frances. That does not include Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit the Florida Panhandle or three major hurricanes that did not make landfall.

This season has been distinguished by persistent tropical cyclone activity with at least one in existence on every day since Aug. 25, the report said.

Ivan's 10 days as an intense hurricane were the most of any storm since 1900.

The new report says the storms did an estimated $45 billion in damage combined - $5 billion more than Hurricane Andrew alone did in 1992.

Anyone got the feeling that these jokers don't know diddly? And I ain't talkin' Bo, either!