Good Morning Ike

Or rather, good morning Ike's outer arms:

It is POURING down rain this morning. When you live in the sub-tropics, you learn to sleep through a lot of weather. But the downpour actually woke me up today!

I'm sure glad my roof is fixed and all projectiles have been removed from my driveway, yard and rooftop.

Hang on, Texas. Ike is a wet one!

Oh Shit

With Gustav ashore in Louisiana, all eyes turn back to the tropics and what do we see?

This:


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

I hope the roofers come this week and A) fix my roof or B) take the rolls of felt and boxes of nails (otherwise known as projectiles) off the roof before Hanna or Ike come this way.

Are we there yet?

Sigh. Hurricane season is wearing on me again this year. My roof is still leaking and here comes Gustav:

You can see that the Tampa Bay area is on the outer eastern edge of the cone of uncertainty. Certainly, we'll see some wind and rain. And here I sit with roofing materials on my roof, but no work started yet.

Gustav has already killed 11 people in Haiti and is expected to be develop into a Category 3 storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

Brace yourselves. Here we go again..

Fay Makes Third Florida Landfall

Fay just made its third landfall in Florida. After battering Key West and Collier County, it came ashore near Flagler beach on the other side of the state. The storm has just been hugging the coast and dropping boatloads of water on Florida. Melbourne has already gotten 25 inches of rain.

Oddly enough, the Tampa Bay area will see more rain out of the east coast landfall than we did out of the west coast landfall. It's pouring down rain as I write this. And my roof is still leaking.

Fay spent a lot of time over land. It didn't spend enough time over warm tropical waters to become a hurricane. All things considered, we've been very, very lucky.

Fay the Question Mark

Looking far too tan and rested for someone who claims part of my paycheck for his own, Governor Crist is calling this a "boomerang storm." Looks more like a question mark to me. Check it out:

We have been spared so far. Not a drop of rain. Just a bit of wind. Given that my roof would be leaking right now, I'm fairly happy that Fay wanted to visit parts south and north. Of course, it's not over until it's over. Recall, the initial forecast had Fay coming right up my...err...back yard.

I wonder if I can get a roofer out here before she boomerangs back on us...

I'll keep you posted.

Fay Day

That's the name the talking heads have given the day today. Ingenious, don't you think? Here's Fay's projected track as of 2 PM ET.




I have too much to do today to write much, but here's what the NHC advisory says:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND*. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTHWARD AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF FLAMINGO INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

* I live less than five miles east of Anna Maria Island.

In short: The entire state of Florida is under some kind of watch or warning due to Fay.

It's starting to get cloudy here, but we haven't seen any rain yet. The Keys are getting pounded right now and Cuba is taking a beating from the re-strengthening outer bands.

The boys are trying to patch my leaky roof and we're putting up my shutters today. I probably won't need them, but I'd much rather sit through a mild storm in a boarded-up house than sit through a raging storm with my windows uncovered. I've done both, believe me, you don't want to be watching branches hitting your windows and wishing you'd boarded up when it's too late to do anything.

The NHC discussion from 11 AM ET today says that the storm is "in a moderate southwesterly shear environment and upper-level winds will likely remain less than ideal for the next 24-28 hours." Good news. Still, they expect the storm to be a category one hurricane when it makes landfall somewhere in Florida.

Stay tuned. The fun's just beginning.

Fay On the Way

Okay, I have enough problems at this moment:

• broken pipe under the bathroom sink
• broken garbage disposal
• microwave that doesn't seal anymore
• internet access down
• nearly everything wrong with a shipment from Musician's Friend
• leaky roof
• overgrown grass
• multiple competing deadlines
  

And now:

• Fay

Fay is on track for Tampa by Tuesday. So now I've got to dig out the shutters and get to work. Lovely. Just what I needed to end a week only the Devil could have devised.

The NHC says "Everyone in the Florida penninsula should monitor the progress of Fay."

No duh. More later. I need a beer.

And Now There Are Three

Not liking the looks of this. Three tropical "disturbances" is a bit more than I can handle at one time. The newest is Dolly. I won't do the Hello Dolly bit as I've already been chastised for the trite -- and apparently reserved -- use of Big Bertha. Being a relative Newbie in HurricaneLand, I hope you will forgive.

Wayne, my friend in Isla Mujeres, Mexico reports this about Dolly. Note the non-use of the easily accessible "Hello Dolly" in Wayne's blog. One learns from one's peers.

But--as I often do--I digress.

Dolly is alive and well in the Yucatan and appears ready to make an appearance in the U.S.

Be watching. I will.

Our Third Named Storm

Tropical Storm Cristobal has formed off the South Carolina coast. The NHC says it's likely to strengthen, but I think it's safe to say it won't affect Florida. It looks like it won't have much affect on land, at all.

I'll be watching...

Big Bertha

I know, it's a trite title for the blog entry, but Bertha's shaping up pretty quick. Here's what the NHC has to say:

RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. BECAUSE OF THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. BERTHA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERTHA WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS THEREFORE SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 48 HOURS WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH AGAIN SHOULD HALT STRENGTHENING.

In other words: not sure exactly what will happen. Keep your eyes peeled. Here's the 5-day cone:

I'll be keeping you posted...

The NHC says there's little threat of Arthur reforming. It's pouring in Belize, Guatemala and Southeastern Mexico and flash floods are still a threat, but Arthur seems to have done his thing for the most part. It's a rainmaker for our friends to the south and a wake-up call for us.

Meanwhile, it's a beautiful day in South Florida and the drought continues...

Arthur Arrives Right On Time

Today is the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. And heeeeeeeeeere's Arthur:

Actually, Arthur arrived a little early. It was a tropical storm yesterday, but it's weakened to a tropical depression today. From the NHC :

...ARTHUR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO HAVE DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...SOUTH OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ARTHUR COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

For some radar images of what Arthur looked like over Mexico yesterday and some pretty pictures of the Caribbean sky, check out Wayne's blog entry from yesterday.

Arthur doesn't seem like much, but don't get complacent. It's hot this year. HOT. And it's still early. That's it from Hurricane Land today. I'm going to the beach.

NOAA Predicts Near Normal or Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

Ah, it's that wonderful time of year when the humidity rises and chases the snowbirds back to their northern "first" homes, the Gulf of Mexico becomes swimable and hurricanes begin to slam into Atlantic and Caribbean land masses. It's all a part of living in paradise. Witness:

The stretch of Anna Maria Island where I walk almost daily.

Sunset over a part of Sarasota Bay known as The Cortez Kitchen.
(Known as such for its legendary abundance of fish.)

A montage of the 2004 hurricane season
Courtesy of the Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Paradise ain't for sissies.

Back to business. I know I didn't keep up on this blog very well last year. Apologies all around for those who require one. However, in my defense, I was going through the nasty and painful break-up of an 18-year relationship, which consumed most of my time, energy and will to live. Plus, there wasn't much activity out there anyway. Thank...errrr...whomever you wish!

And now to this year's outlook. This graphic, courtesy NOAA, shows predictions and probabilities in lovely colors and charts, including a pie chart, the tastiest kind. This graphic probably looks grrr-eat in a PowerPoint presentation. It not only demonstrates the predictions for the 2008 season, but also reminds me why--screaming and bleeding in my belly--I fled Corporate America some two-plus years ago.

NOAA's prediction, released on May 22, says there is a 90 percent chance of a near or above normal season:

The climate patterns expected during this year’s hurricane season have in past seasons produced a wide range of activity and have been associated with both near-normal and above-normal seasons. For 2008, the outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes for which two reach major status.

And so we begin. A few things to note as we start off the 2008 season.

New to HurricaneLand this year:

1. I chucked the Google ads. They're irrelevant many times and obnoxious most times. You don't like them and neither do I.

2. While the blog is still a Florida-centric view of the Atlantic hurricane season, I'll be keeping closer tabs on the Yucatán. I have new friends on Isla Mujeres, so I'll be watching closely. Check out Wayne's view of all things Isla (I assume this includes hurricanes) on his blog.

3. The mailing list is FUBAR at the moment. It will not accept new subscribers. I don't know why and talking to tech support is like talking to a stone. No, I take that back. I believe a stone would actually listen if it could. Anyway, I will work diligently to get it working before the first spinning ball of hell comes screaming out of the tropics.

Business As Usual:

1. The 2008 storm names are posted in the right sidebar. Here's a pronunciation guide (someone tell the TV newscasters puh-leeeeez?) and NOAA's rationale for choosing the names, excerpted here:

Experience shows that the use of short, distinctive given names in written as well as spoken communications is quicker and less subject to error than the older more cumbersome latitude-longitude identification methods.

Is it just me or does the need for a pronunciation guide conflict with the rationale?

2. Names of active storms will appear in bold type while storms that have passed will be crossed out.

3. Florida stats will appear in the top right sidebar.

As always, I love hearing from my readers, so don't hesitate to drop me a line with the following things in mind:

1. Suggestions for improvements are welcomed and generally ignored.

2. If you write to me, don't bother giving me a hard time for criticizing city, county, state or federal governments or any of their agents, including but not limited to NOAA, FEMA and The Press. I don't care to hear patriotic mumbo-jumbo or pathetically weak defenses of an inefficient, expensive and propagandist structure.

3. However, if you think I'm being too hard on any of the victims (failure to prepare, pay attention, and/or take responsibility for their own safety, etc.) I will listen to your side of the story. I might even change my mind and/or post the part of your argument that caused me to reconsider my position.

All that said, it's time to get prepared. Steel your nerves and get your hurricane supplies and plans together. I'll be doing a post on preparation later, but if you can't wait, you can check out FEMA's priceless advice.

Meanwhile, it's time for my walk...