A Picture is worth...

Katrina Hits the Big Easy
Courtesy NOAA

Katrina Makes Its Way Inland
Courtesy NOAA

'Nuff Said
AP Photo

Perspective: This is 100 miles from the eye of the storm
AP Photo

New Orleans Takes a Hit
AP Photo

Blown Out Windows in Downtown New Orleans
Reuters Newswire

Police Cruiser Stranded on Canal Street
Note the Plywood Floating Under the Back End
AP Photo

A Bit Tough To Find the Interstate
Reuters Newswire

Downtown New Orleans
AP Photo

Katrina Peels Roof Off of Super Dome in New Orleans
AP Photo

Taking Refuge in a Doorway on Bourbon Street
I can't help wondering what became of Blair Quintana and Patrick Lamparo...
Are they homeless? Why didn't they go to the Super Dome?
What became of them when Katrina passed?
AP Photo/Dave Martin

Collapsed Building in New Orleans
AP Photo

Mound Underpass, I-10, New Orleans
AP Photo

Uptown New Orleans
AP Photo

New Orleans Under Water
AP Photo

Nothing Will Be Easy in "N'awlins" For a While
AP Photo

Beloved Bourbon Street in the Rain
AP Photo

Lake Pontchartrain Floods LaCombe, LA
AP Photo

Gulfport, Mississippi
AP Photo


Gulfport Mississippi
AP Photo

From the Perspective Files:
Here are some photos from South Miami Dade County, Florida from last week when Killer Katrina was "only" a category one 'cane.

Flooding In Miami-Dade
AP Photo

Katrina's Wrath at Category One
AP Photo

Killer Katrina: I'm At A Loss for Words

As the National Weather Service reports parts of metropolitan New Orleans have suffered total structural failure, a section of levee has given way, flooding the Ninth Ward neighborhood, the roof of the Super Dome appears to be peeling away, at least one hundred people are trapped on their roofs by rising flood waters , the storm blew out windows in high rise hotels (including the Hyatt where I stayed during my last visit), and at least ten people have died due to Killer Katrina: seven in Florida and three in Louisiana, I find myself at a loss for words.

Meanwhile TD #13 spins northeast of the Lesser Antilles another wave forms off of Cape Verde. I don't have anything else to say.

The Perfect Hurricane

Katrina's windfield is now 100 miles wide. If Katrina maintains its strength, which the NHC lastest discussion says is likely as there is no upper level shear or other factors to mitigate the power it is currently drawing out of warm Gulf waters, it will come ashore as a category four or five hurricane.

When you wake up in the morning, New Orleans might be gone. I'm not kidding. To understand the force of even a category one hurricane, Google Katrina + Fort Lauderdale. About a half million people are still without power on the east coast of Florida and there is widespread flooding throughout the metro areas near Katrina's first landfall. Seven people have already died.

This could well be the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States. Katrina is simply the perfect hurricane. If you look at the picture above, you can see the deep convection in the center, the nearly perfectly formed eye...it's a
terror.

While we are relieved to be spared this time, we are acutely aware that others will suffer in our place. Whatever you do to express empathy for your fellow beings...pray or meditate or send energy, it doesn't matter...just please do it now for the people living in the path of Katrina. Only one thing is sure: wherever this storm comes ashore, it will leave widespread destruction and human misery in its wake.

Our hearts and minds are with our brothers and sisters on the northern Gulf coast.

Big Easy Braces for Monster Katrina

Hurricane Katrina is now a category five storm. It's impressive to say the least. The eyewall is sharply defined and nearly symmetrical. Winds are currently at 160 mph as Katrina takes aim at one of my favorite cities in the United States: New Orleans. If Katrina's eye makes a direct hit or passes just west of the city, words like "catastrophic" and "devastating" will not begin to describe the damage. New Orleans lies below sea level and the city relies on a delicately balanced system of levees and pumps to keep water from engulfing the city. With a category five, the storm will send a twenty foot (or more) wall of water rushing into city. The levees designed to keep the sea out, will hold the storm surge in. Ironic, isn't it? Even if the power stays on, which is highly unlikely, the city's pump system cannot handle the volume of water that will accompany a category five or even a category four storm. See Eric Berger's Sci Guy Blog for an in-depth discussion of the potential Waterloo New Orleans is now preparing to meet.

Residents are streaming out of the city now. Many elderly residents have lived in New Orleans all their lives and have never owned or even drove a car. (You don't need a car in New Orleans. It's beautifully designed for walking and public transport.) Officials say they are trying to get to these people, but...well...figure it out...they simply can't get to everyone.

Wherever Katrina comes ashore, it's not going to be pretty. This is one hell of a huge storm. It scares me to look at it - even knowing it's not going to come ashore here. Let's just hope and pray that Katrina decides to pass a bit east of the Big Easy. Our thoughts are with everyone - on land and sea - in Katrina's path.

Update: Katrina Will Strengthen to Category 4 Before Second Landfall

This just in from the NHC:

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE GULF LOOP CURRENT AFTER 36 HOURS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH BRING KATRINA UP TO 118 KT. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL IS MORE
ROBUST AND BRINGS KATRINA UP TO 129 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.

I guess Phil was right: Katrina is shaping up to be one heck of a "sexy" storm.

Katrina the Wanderer

Katrina is giving the weather computers fits. The NHC discussion this morning indicated that none of the models have been able to track Katrina accurately. The current track is a blend of models, but since none have been able to forecast its motion accurately...all bets are off as far as I'm concerned. Not that I think it will hook east like Charley did last year, but who knows? The trouble with 'canes is they simply don't listen to weather forecasters.
The computer models have shifted all over the dang map for the last couple of days. It's hard to have confidence in any of them. Note in this view from Weather Underground that three of the current models track Katrina further west, while one pulls it farther east. One thing is certain: Katrina's movement depends on a ridge of high pressure currently over Texas. When it encounters a weakness in that system, it will turn west. It seems that no computer or human can predict when or where that will happen. Welcome to the wonderful world of hurricane forecasting. What a job. When I don't do my job, someone doesn't get their fart machine in time for Christmas. But no one dies for lack of a fart machine. Well, maybe your old uncle who insists on playing the "pull my finger" game at the dinner table, but he's probably an old fart who's time has come anyway. [Kidding...don't send me hate mail, please.]

I heard from our friend Phil up in the panhandle this morning. Here's what he had to say:

Hello and good mornin' guys... I smell a hurricane. Looks like things should start to deteriorate our direction (those of you in the West Panhandle), sometime Sunday evening into early morning Monday, if the current forecast holds true. I could sure use the overtime, but I've found it unbelievable how many tropical cyclones have affected the region over the past 54 weeks, and I'm beginning to wonder how well Florida can take too many more of these. Just for giggles, the eye of Katrina passed over NHC last night. (Rebuilt after Andrew in 1992, located on Florida International University's South campus.)

Prepare to bunker down ladies, Katrina is lookin' rather sexy as she wakes up this mornin'... Katrina gave Miami a good blow job, and I don't mean the vulgar kind so get your minds out of the gutter :-P

God Bless,
Phil

Thanks for the update, Phil. We'll be keeping an eye on y'all this weekend.

I'm a bit worried that I haven't heard from Bryan in Fort Lauderdale...Bry, if you're out there, honey, give me a shout, please? I'm worried about you...

Stay safe everyone. The Hunker Bunker is officially open for the weekend. Let's play guitars and watch the wind blow! The Florida Room is concert ready. We have movies, popcorn and food. Someone wanna bring the beer?

Hurricane Katrina

Katrina is now a hurricane and set to make landfall near Ft. Lauderdale.

HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE...

SHORTLY BEFORE 330 PM EDT...REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

Oh, we're having fun NOW!

And this response to this morning's post from Phil:

Uhm.... If that thing hits anywhere between here and the Eastern Time Zone, I will likely be getting overtime at work.

Hey I just noticed something.... Bonnie Charlie Frances Ivan Jeanne.... Arlene Cindy Dennis Katrina... one more and we will have matched last year in Florida-affecting named storms.

God Bless,
Phil

I'm sure he'll keep us posted over the weekend.

Katrina Set to Pound Florida's East Coast

From the National Hurricane Center:

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

Katrina is now about 90 miles east of Ft. Lauderdale and moving slowly toward the Florida peninsula. Bryan, you take care of yourself out there in FTL! Text me and let me know how it's going.

The NHC has revised yesterday's forecast and now warns that Katrina will likely become a category one hurricane before it makes landfall. Yesterday they had predicted that Katrina would be a tropical storm at first landfall on the peninsula and then strengthen to a hurricane over the warm Gulf water (93 degrees!!!) before it hits Florida again somewhere along the panhandle.
The computer models shown in this image [courtesy of Weather Underground] are in pretty good agreement about the first landfall, but once Katrina gets out over the Gulf of Mexico, it's hard to say where it will go. There's little doubt that it will become a hurricane again before second landfall, so everyone in the cone should be preparing for the worst while hoping for the best.

To our subscribers and friends in the Panhandle: we're all hoping Katrina turns in any direction but yours. Here on the Sun Coast, we're agreed that you've been through quite enough in the last 12 months. If the storm does hit there, hopefully, Phil will be in touch with Hurricane Land to let us know what's going on.

We'll be watching the storm all weekend. It's not like there will be anything else to do! Stay tuned. We're just getting warmed up in Hurricane Land.

TD 12 - Come on Down!

Tropical Depression 12 is set to hit Florida this weekend (but of course) as a tropical storm. Its name will be Katrina. The NHC forecast says the storm will hit the east coast and then travel across the state. It probably won't be much more than a nasty summer storm by the time it hits our side of the state, but it will be enough to thoroughly piss on our weekend.

We're not planning to board up; we're just going to rent some movies and lay low.

It's probably just as well that it's a weekend storm. With the red tide killing everything that swims and flies at the beach, it hasn't been much of a recreational summer anyway. Boating is miserable and walking the beach is like smoking two packs of cigarettes in an hour. I suppose that's just as well, too, because it makes it harder to smell the dead fish, which far outnumber human beachgoers this year. It's just plain nasty out there.

Meanwhile, the tropics are really starting to heat up now. The satellite image shows a lot of disturbance coming off the Cape. We expect the next few weeks to rock and roll in the tropics. We're ready. The hurricane kit is stocked and packed. Shutters are inspected and ready to install. Run or stay, we're ready.

For those of you out west: don't worry. TD 12 (Katrina) isn't likely to do much but drop a lot of rain and maybe blow out some dead brush, which will save us the trouble of cutting it.

For those of you (you know who you are) who come up here for shelter or diversion during the storms: the Hunker Bunker is open for the weekend.

Tasty Morsel Update

Note: This post should have published on the 17th, but didn't...apologies.
Phil, a reader and avid weather watcher like myself, says this of the tasty morsel from the earlier post:

I found that cake on Webshots... and my immediate guess is that ERAU is Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University... They indicated that it was indeed a hurricane party.

Phil

Thanks for clearing that up, Phil. And here I thought it was for a wedding. But then again, I was up at 4:30am because of last night's relentless thunderstorms. Not that I'm complaining...we've had very little rain this rainy season, which makes it unbearably hot -- even for me. I don't believe I ever used the phrase unbearably hot until this summer, but now...I have this to say: I give! I give! Uncle! Uncle! It's too hot even for me. Temps have been in the mid-nineties, but with humidity hovering at about 9,000%, the local weatherheads say the heat index is around 105 most days. I beg to differ. Seems to me the heat index has been about "face of the Sun" most days lately. And with the lovely toxicity of the lingering red tide algae bloom, catching a breeze at the beach is about as pleasant as catching bronchitis.

New Forecast from Dr. Gray, Irene and a Tasty Morsel

Dr. Gray and team revised their forecast earlier in the month. I've been away from the blog for a while due to...well...stuff. Here's the revised hurricane season forecast. Regular readers will recall the First Day of Hurricane Season post where this table was first posted. I've updated the table for this post. Note the regional strike probabilities have been revised upward as well.

2005 Forecast
Forecast Activity as of:	12/03/04	04/01/05	08/05/05
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	11	13	20
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)	55	65	95
Hurricanes (H)(5.9)	6	7	10
Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5)	25	35	55
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)	3	3	6
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0)	6	7	18
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%)	115	135	235
Check the right sidebar for a 2004 comparison and link to last year's scoreboard.

To see previous landfall probabilities check out the First Day of Hurricane Season post.

Revised Regional Probability Forecast:
Probabilities For At Least One Major (Category 3-4-5) Hurricane Landfall On Each Of The Following Coastal Areas:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 77% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 58% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean - revised to include Bahamas

Meanwhile, the tropics are looking eerily quiet. Tropical Depression Ten is still viable, but looks pathetic and weak spinning out there under all that shear. The NHCwarns that the storm could redevelop and advises the Northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands to monitor TD 10's progress. The storm could redevelop into a tropical depression within a day or so as the low moves away into a more favorable environment for development. Even so, it looks unlikely that it will affect Florida.


Good NIGHT Irene. This one is the storm that just won't die. It's weakened now to a tropical storm. Irene is what is known as a "fish storm." It will stay in the ocean (good place for it if you ask me) and die at sea.


And finally, I received this tasty picture from a subscriber this morning. A weddding cake? Or just celebrating Hurricane Frances? Seems unlikely, but hurricane mania does the strangest things to people. [Phil: Care to explain the photo?]

NOTE: If the email is hard to read, you can access the entire post at: News From Hurricane Land. Stay tuned for more from the tropics.

NOAA's Revised '05 Forecast + Hello There Harvey!

Courtesy NOAA

NOAA has revised their forecast upward. Again. Read the press release. Compare and contrast NOAA's predictions with the Tropical Meteorology Project's predictions released in May:

2005 Forecast
Forecast Activity as of:	12/03/04	04/01/05
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	11	13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)	55	65
Hurricanes (H)(5.9)	6	7
Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5)	25	35
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)	3	3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0)	6	7
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%)	115	135
Check the right sidebar for a 2004 comparison and link to last year's scoreboard.

Regional Probability Forecast: Probabilities For At Least One Major (Category 3-4-5) Hurricane Landfall On Each Of The Following Coastal Areas:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 49% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 39% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Harvey has arrived. As of a mid-afternoon advisory, Harvey is much stronger than originally believed.

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft sent to investigate Harvey reports that winds are at 60 mph, a mere 14 mph from hurricane strength. Harvey looks like it will torture Bermuda and then head out to sea to cause havoc in the shipping channels.

And out of the "Train Train Train" of activity coming off of Cape Verde, which I posted about yesterday comes a new tropical wave. From the NHC:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

If the wave develops into a tropical depression, it will be #9. (Oh, great! Now I'm going to have that stupid Yoko Ono song in my head all night.) If the depression develops into a storm, it will be named Irene.

Train Train Train...

And so begins the season when storms begin to boil off of Cape Verde, Africa (bottom right of image). This train of thunderstorms is too young to predict, but this is what we start to see in Mid-August. This type of activity is what brought us a hurricane roughly every two weeks last year beginning with Charley on August 13 (Friday!). Here at home, the Gulf waters are a warm, hurricane-fueling 90 degrees.

This morning television pundits pretending to be scientists were arguing whether global warming fuels the fierce hurricane seasons we've seen of late or whether it's a cyclical phenomenon, or maybe we just notice it more because there are more people now, or...or...or. (Hey! Maybe the sky is really made of marshmallow pudding!) I'm not a climatologist, so I have no opinion as to the cause. I have suspicions, but no valid opinions that are based on fact not feeling. I just wish they would stop arguing from their political and paid points of view and do some real science that we can act upon before this petri dish we call a planet implodes. I mean, people, let's try getting to the truth instead of serving our own self interests. Did I say that out loud? Hahahaha. Oh...whew...I crack me up.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression #8 looks set to hassle Bermuda and its environs. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Bermuda and the NHC is watching the system for further development. As will I...