Good Morning, Barry!

It's pouring down rain. Pouring. But Barry, as storms go, will be fairly mild. Lot of rain and wind, but the water's not very hot and the storm will make landfall before it is able to develop much. It's coming ashore - on top of us - as I write this.

Here's what the NHC has to say:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARRY...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA.

The newscaster just said: "This might be the storm that saves a million lawns." Ha. True of mine, I know. My weeds (I have no grass to speak of) are so brown.

No worries. Barry is just our wake-up call. I'm ready for the season. Are you?

And We're Off!

Subtropical storm Andrea (the name of a good friend of mine, by the way) is off the southeast coast. She's weak and will make landfall too soon to gain much momentum, but there she is folks!

Ernesto Arrives: It's Raining

Ernesto has arrived in South Florida, but since it didn't have time to strengthen to hurricane force after leaving Cuba, it's simply a "rain event" like Alberto was.

No reports of deaths have emerged from Cuba, though the province of Guantánamo received over eight inches of rain during Ernesto's visit. Perhaps the most notable feature of this hurricane strike in Cuba was Castro's absence from the airwaves before, during and after the storm. His brother, Raúl, did not make public statements and as yet has not began surveying the damage in front of television cameras as was Fidel's custom.

From Hispaniola: The death toll in Haiti remains at two. The south end of the country suffered wind and flood damage where over 200 homes were damaged and several banana fields were completely destroyed. The Dominican Republic reported damage to over 400 homes, but no fatalities and no serious structural damage.

For our part, we're expecting rain, some wind gusts and not much else. Still, I'm happy to have been prepared for the worst even though this storm turned out to be a best-case scenario.

For more info on Ernesto and the latest tracking maps, visit the National Hurricane Center.

Ernesto On Track for Florida

Ah, summer. A time for fishing, swimming, boating, beaching and watching enormous radar blobs approach the state of Florida. If you've been following the storm, you'll see the track has changed since Sunday (I couldn't write yesterday due to a small household accident that confined me to the couch) and that its prolonged journey over Cuba weakened it from a hurricane to a tropical storm. Now that it's back over water, it will restrengthen, but hopefully not much, before it makes landfall.

Ernesto is now forecast to smack into our neighbors in the Keys and run up the middle of the state before going back out to sea. A second US landfall somewhere in the neighborhood of the Carolinas is also forecast by the National Hurricane Center. Check out the satellite views of Ernesto to watch the center begin to form again.

Ernesto killed two people in Haiti before striking Cuba where it reportedly dropped some seven inches of rain. South Floridians still trying to recover from the 2005 season are being told to evacuate their FEMA trailers before the storm hits. The wisdom is undeniable: a trailer can't withstand the impact of even a strong tropical storm, but the irony and misery of the situation are also undeniable. The storm also forced NASA to cancel the space shuttle Atlantis launch.

And, if you can't take any more bad news, here's something from the humor files: FEMA claims it's ready for Ernesto. If that doesn't make you laugh, you haven't been paying attention.

Depending on the strength at landfall, we could get some tropical storm force winds here, so we'll be packing up the patio projectiles today. We have plenty of everything and we're as ready as possible...

Good Morning, Hurricane Ernesto

We woke up to a new track this morning, which is not surprising this far out from landfall. Ernesto is now a hurricane and predicted to come right into our front yard. The computer models from Weather Underground show the possiblities, including a panhandle or more northerly landfall. The NHC discussion seems to indicate confidence in a west coast strike. However, it's still early and, as we learned with Hurricane Charley in 2004, anything can happen. Hurricane intensity and tracks are difficult to predict especially when they're young storms like this one.

However, given that most of the computer models agree that Ernesto will make an easterly turn once it gets into our neighborhood, we'll start boarding up the Hunker Bunker on Tuesday/Wednesday. Unless there are some drastic changes in the forecast, we'll probably have to evacuate, so all you low lying folks who count on the Bunker: let's make a plan.

Here we go, kiddies. Never a dull moment in Hurricane Land.

Tropical Storm Ernesto to Visit the Gulf

Tropical Storm Ernesto looks as if it will make a visit to the Gulf of Mexico. The models seem to predict a North Central Gulf Coast hit. It's still too early to tell, but here's the lastest discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ERNESTO AND FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 999 MB WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS DUE TO THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 45 KNOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AVAILABLE REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT. ERNESTO HAS BEEN A FIGHTER AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE STRONG SHEAR SO FAR. UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERNESTO...A PATTERN WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM WATERS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ERNESTO BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND VERY SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. OF COURSE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND STRENGTHENING MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT DECREASE.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

We'll be monitoring. Believe me.

Tropical Storm Debby appears to shaping up as a good fish storm and nothing more. The National Hurricane Center discussion indicates that Debby might yet strengthen into a hurricane, but the models predict that she will avoid land and make a hard right out to sea.

More as the activity off the Cape heats up. It's that time of year...

Tropical Depression Chris

Chris seems to be falling apart. The 8:00 advisory from the NHC downgraded Chris from a Tropical Storm to a Tropical Depression. As it continues on its way west, it continues to sink south, away from Florida.

This makes for a slow day (thankfully) in Hurricane Land and means my trip to Dallas isn't likely to be interrupted by Chris. Summer thunderstorms are always a wildcard, but hopefully I'll get out and back without being delayed at the second worst airport in the country: DFW.

Stay tuned to Hurricane Land...We're just getting warmed up.

Chris Gets Its Act Together

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

Tropical Storm Chris is getting its act together. While I don't think this will affect the west gulf coast, any storm in the area bears watching. Besides, it's a good reminder to check your supplies. We replaced the batteries in our weather radio today. ..something we should have done weeks ago when Alberto breezed through.
The computer models have yet to converge and the discussion over at the National Hurricane Center goes like this:

WTNT43 KNHC 021447TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

Data from the San Juan WSR-88D Doppler radar and high-resolution visible satellite imagery suggest that Chris is gradually becoming better organized as it continues toward the west-northwest near 9 KT. Initial intensity is set at 55 kt in accordance with the last recon-measured flight-level winds of 67 kt and DVORAK T-numbers of 3.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Cirrus motions indicate that Chris continues to be experiencing some northerly shear. On the predicted track...and based on the 200 MB wind forecast from the GFS...Chris will be in a COL region between two upper-level cyclones during the next few days. This is a reasonably favorable upper-level environment...so a gradual increase in strength is forecast. The NHC wind speed forecast is similar to the latest ships guidance and a little above the FSU Superensemble prediction. As always...it should be recalled that tropical cyclone intensity forecasts at 3-5 days have little skill.

Latest center fixes suggest little change in the initial heading or speed. Global models indicate that the mid/upper-level low near the Central Bahamas will move westward and slowly weaken over the next few days...while a rather strong mid-tropospheric ridge builds to the north of Chris. This kind of flow pattern would steer the tropical cyclone on a general west-northwestward track. However an even stronger ridge would likely drive Chris westward. Indeed...this is the scenario offered by the GFDL model which even turns the system west-southwestward for a while. Whereas the GFDL is a highly credible model...the most prudent course at this time is to use the consensus of all of the dynamical models. This is also very similar to the previous NHC track. [Emphasis mine]

Even though we're in the five-day cone there's no need to worry about Chris at the moment, but it's always best to be prepared. Personally, I'm not all that fond of fighting my friends and neighbors for basic supplies while a storm howls out in the Gulf. That's why I've been looking at over a dozen gallons of purified water sitting here on the floor of my home office since before June first.

If you live in Florida, think of Chris as your second wake-up call. If you hit the snooze button after Alberto, it might be wise to put your feet on the floor this time and start getting ready to survive up to a month without power or water.

The height of hurricane season is coming. And FEMA isn't.

Alberto the Rainmaker

Alberto is still passing through Florida, dropping a ton of rain and causing some storm surge flooding. As Alberto nears landfall, it has yet failed to reach hurricane strength.

It's just about onshore near Cedar Key now and is predicted to pass through North Carolina as it falls apart. I'm in Texas, but reports from home say Alberto caused some minor flooding, a lot of rain and a few miserable days that remind my husband of living in Oregon.

You can see from NOAA's visible images that it's not much of a storm, but hold on to your hats, folks...today is only day 13 of the season. If your hurricane preparations are behind schedule, Alberto's visit to Hurricane Land should remind you to get ready, get set and if you have to, GO!



Photo Courtesy NOAA

And So It Begins...

Tropical Storm Alberto is the first named storm of the season. I'm off to Dallas tomorrow, provided planes are taking off from Tampa, but I'll try to monitor the storm from there. It should be quite the rainmaker, but yes, we're prepapring for the worst.

Read the latest advisory from NOAA.

See the 3-day forecast track

Welcome to Hurricane Season 2006!

Tropical Storm Zeta? Say it ain't so!

But NOAA says it is so.

000
WONT41 KNHC 301605
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM ZETA IS IN PREPARATION AND WILL BE ISSUED IN AN HOUR OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Sigh.

Wilma Arrives in Florida

It's windy. Wilma came ashore as a category three hurricane about an hour ago at Marco Island, just south of Naples. (Wendy: I'm glad you evacuated!)

We're seeing tropical storm force winds with gusts brushing hurricane force in certain areas. We've been under tornado watch since last night. It's blowing pretty good out there, but we're spared the worst of it. Of course, schools are closed and no one is going to work today. We're supposed to get a cold front right after the storm, so the weather will go from tropical to winter in the space of a few hours. Right now it's humid and I can smell the warm rain through walls.

It's 7am and we're safe and dry. More later.

Good Morning Wilma

Wilma, finished with Cozumel, slammed into the Yucatán peninsula. Because the storm is lingering, it could drop as much as 20 inches of rain on Cancún. Story...

The guidance models appear to be coming into agreement, making the NHC more certain of its forecast. However, the local news stations aren't in agreement as to whether Tampa is in the cone or not. Bay News 9 shows the cone just covering the edge of Manatee county, leaving Tampa out, but covering our area. The folks at Fox 13 News are broadcasting a broader cone, which agrees with the NHC's cone. So, while I cannot believe I am saying this: I believe Fox News.

Manatee County has declared as state of emergency, but we're not under any directions from emergency management officials. The NHC seems fairly certain of its forecast, but it also predicts a very large windfield as the hurricane gets pulled apart as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico.

Where does this leave us? Unknown. Right where we've been since Wilma was named. Watching and waiting. Any change in the steering conditions and the forecast could change in a heartbeat.

Stay tuned. We'll be spending most of the day preparing for the storm to hit us even though everyone says it's not going to. I know, I know. It's madness. Welcome to Paradise.

Wilma Slams Cozumel

Wilma crashed into the shores of Cozumel this morning and is now headed for the Yucatán peninsula and Cancún. Story...

I don't know where our friends are at this point. Our attempts to reach them have failed. When we saw images of the shelters set up in Cancún, all we saw were tourists - no brown faces in the crowd. I hope their government is taking better care of them than ours did the poor citizens of New Orleans. Not surprisingly, Novedades, México's online newspaper seems to be offline. I guess we wait.

Meanwhile, the uncertainty grows as to where and when Wilma will strike Florida's Gulf Coast. Workers are outside my window boarding up the top floor of our building. We are all taking precautions to safeguard our data in the event we take a direct hit. The map at left from Weather Underground's Steve Gregory shows that most of the models are still converging on South Florida while one stubbornly tracks north, predicting a Tampa Bay landfall. The NHC discussion indicates that the wide spread in the models so "both the location and the timing of the impacts on Florida remain very uncertain."

For this reason, I believe we will hang our hurricane shutters tomorrow - at least if I have anything to say about it, which I certainly do. Haha. The storm is just too unpredictable and I'd rather be shuttered in the calm than unprotected in the storm. So, the hunker bunker won't be open this weekend, but it will be open on Monday, if necessary.

To friends and family around the country and the world: try not to worry. We are smart, strong and prepared. We will do whatever it takes to weather the storm.

Wicked Wilma

Wilma is shaping up to be one of the nastiest storms on record. It will probably restrengthen to a category 5 before slamming into the Yucatán peninsula sometime tonight or tomorrow morning. I'm very worried about our friends in that area, but so far my attempts to contact them have failed. Hopefully, that means they are on their way away from the sea.

We are still taking a wait-and-see attitude toward hanging the shutters because Wicked Wilma has slowed some and we can't get a good read on whether it is worth the effort or not. We do expect to experience tropical storm force winds when Wilma crosses the state due to upper level conditions that will work to pull part of the storm to the north as it crosses Florida.

The models are now shifting even farther south, but Tampa Bay is still in the cone. Remember: don't focus on the line...you have to prepare if you are anywhere inside the cone. Preparation will make all the difference to your comfort and perhaps your survival in the event of a hit.




Remember:

Run from the water.
Hide from the wind.

Please stay safe everyone.

One Nasty Storm

Wilma: Cat 5

Wilma became a category five overnight, but it is not expected to sustain its strength. It is expected to hit Florida, the 64-dollar question being: Where?

The "spaghetti models" are in pretty good agreement for a southerly landfall, but those of us who remember Charley remain skeptical, to say the least. You can see that only one of the models takes Wilma through Tampa bay, but that's enough to keep my attention. Jim and I will be watching carefully and preparing to board up and/or run, if necessary. Check back here for updates as I am able to post them.

The Hunker Bunker is tentatively open for business this weekend to our islander friends and those in low-lying Cortez. We have food, water, flashlights, board games and candles. Bring beer.

New Models - GFDL Shifts to the South

GFDL, GFS and UKMET models have been updated. You can see that the GFDL, which had tracked Wilma up to Tampa Bay, has shifted south. The NOGAPS remains on a northerly track, but it hasn't run since 10pm yesterday. The NHC insists the models are in good agreement, so we'll have to wait to see what happens as the evening progresses and NOGAPS runs again.


I strongly encourage everyone to keep in mind that we cannot focus on the tracks for either damage or exact landfall. We have to look at the cone and where we will be upon landfall. If you are on the Gulf Coast, you should be making preparations for both evacuating and hunkering down right now. Unless of course you enjoy getting in a fist fight with your neighbor over the last gallon of water at Winn-Dixie.

As Wilma approaches, remember the two rules:

1. RUN from the water
2.HIDE from the wind.

I will, of course, be watching carefully and keeping the site updated.

A note from Phil

Phil, friend of the list from the Florida Panhandle has this to contribute:

Hello....ltns.

Wilma also ties the record for the 21st significant Storm ... (back when we had 21 tropical storms or greater, was in the 1920's, when we werent yet naming them)..... but it ties that record, and that was the most active hurricane season on record...We are now all *OUT* of hurricane names, and the store doesn't get restocked until 2006. The Greek list is available, at a discounted clearance price.

God Bless,
Phil/Pensacola

Thanks, Phil. Looks like you'll be keeping an eye on the peninsula instead of the peninsula keeping an eye on y'all for this one. As always, I'll be watching...and yes, this time without my cigarettes! Hang on...we're goin' for a ride and I ain't talkin' hay ride.