And Now There Are Three

Not liking the looks of this. Three tropical "disturbances" is a bit more than I can handle at one time. The newest is Dolly. I won't do the Hello Dolly bit as I've already been chastised for the trite -- and apparently reserved -- use of Big Bertha. Being a relative Newbie in HurricaneLand, I hope you will forgive.

Wayne, my friend in Isla Mujeres, Mexico reports this about Dolly. Note the non-use of the easily accessible "Hello Dolly" in Wayne's blog. One learns from one's peers.

But--as I often do--I digress.

Dolly is alive and well in the Yucatan and appears ready to make an appearance in the U.S.

Be watching. I will.

Our Third Named Storm

Tropical Storm Cristobal has formed off the South Carolina coast. The NHC says it's likely to strengthen, but I think it's safe to say it won't affect Florida. It looks like it won't have much affect on land, at all.

I'll be watching...

Big Bertha

I know, it's a trite title for the blog entry, but Bertha's shaping up pretty quick. Here's what the NHC has to say:

RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. BECAUSE OF THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. BERTHA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERTHA WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS THEREFORE SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 48 HOURS WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH AGAIN SHOULD HALT STRENGTHENING.

In other words: not sure exactly what will happen. Keep your eyes peeled. Here's the 5-day cone:

I'll be keeping you posted...