NOAA Predicts Near Normal or Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

Ah, it's that wonderful time of year when the humidity rises and chases the snowbirds back to their northern "first" homes, the Gulf of Mexico becomes swimable and hurricanes begin to slam into Atlantic and Caribbean land masses. It's all a part of living in paradise. Witness:

The stretch of Anna Maria Island where I walk almost daily.

Sunset over a part of Sarasota Bay known as The Cortez Kitchen.
(Known as such for its legendary abundance of fish.)

A montage of the 2004 hurricane season
Courtesy of the Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Paradise ain't for sissies.

Back to business. I know I didn't keep up on this blog very well last year. Apologies all around for those who require one. However, in my defense, I was going through the nasty and painful break-up of an 18-year relationship, which consumed most of my time, energy and will to live. Plus, there wasn't much activity out there anyway. Thank...errrr...whomever you wish!

And now to this year's outlook. This graphic, courtesy NOAA, shows predictions and probabilities in lovely colors and charts, including a pie chart, the tastiest kind. This graphic probably looks grrr-eat in a PowerPoint presentation. It not only demonstrates the predictions for the 2008 season, but also reminds me why--screaming and bleeding in my belly--I fled Corporate America some two-plus years ago.

NOAA's prediction, released on May 22, says there is a 90 percent chance of a near or above normal season:

The climate patterns expected during this year’s hurricane season have in past seasons produced a wide range of activity and have been associated with both near-normal and above-normal seasons. For 2008, the outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes for which two reach major status.

And so we begin. A few things to note as we start off the 2008 season.

New to HurricaneLand this year:

1. I chucked the Google ads. They're irrelevant many times and obnoxious most times. You don't like them and neither do I.

2. While the blog is still a Florida-centric view of the Atlantic hurricane season, I'll be keeping closer tabs on the Yucatán. I have new friends on Isla Mujeres, so I'll be watching closely. Check out Wayne's view of all things Isla (I assume this includes hurricanes) on his blog.

3. The mailing list is FUBAR at the moment. It will not accept new subscribers. I don't know why and talking to tech support is like talking to a stone. No, I take that back. I believe a stone would actually listen if it could. Anyway, I will work diligently to get it working before the first spinning ball of hell comes screaming out of the tropics.

Business As Usual:

1. The 2008 storm names are posted in the right sidebar. Here's a pronunciation guide (someone tell the TV newscasters puh-leeeeez?) and NOAA's rationale for choosing the names, excerpted here:

Experience shows that the use of short, distinctive given names in written as well as spoken communications is quicker and less subject to error than the older more cumbersome latitude-longitude identification methods.

Is it just me or does the need for a pronunciation guide conflict with the rationale?

2. Names of active storms will appear in bold type while storms that have passed will be crossed out.

3. Florida stats will appear in the top right sidebar.

As always, I love hearing from my readers, so don't hesitate to drop me a line with the following things in mind:

1. Suggestions for improvements are welcomed and generally ignored.

2. If you write to me, don't bother giving me a hard time for criticizing city, county, state or federal governments or any of their agents, including but not limited to NOAA, FEMA and The Press. I don't care to hear patriotic mumbo-jumbo or pathetically weak defenses of an inefficient, expensive and propagandist structure.

3. However, if you think I'm being too hard on any of the victims (failure to prepare, pay attention, and/or take responsibility for their own safety, etc.) I will listen to your side of the story. I might even change my mind and/or post the part of your argument that caused me to reconsider my position.

All that said, it's time to get prepared. Steel your nerves and get your hurricane supplies and plans together. I'll be doing a post on preparation later, but if you can't wait, you can check out FEMA's priceless advice.

Meanwhile, it's time for my walk...