As the 2005 hurricane season approaches, The Tropical Meteorology Project team predicts another wild season for the Atlantic: "We foresee a slightly above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005. Also, an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is anticipated. We do not, however, expect anything close to the U.S. landfalling hurricane activity of 2004."
You may think that's good news. The problem is, hurricanes rarely take their marching orders from meteorologists. Here are the forecasts issued on December 4, 2004 and a subseqent forecast issued April 1, 2005 (presumably not an April Fool's joke:
If you haven't started preparing yet, it's time to start thinking about it.
2005 Forecast Forecast Activity as of: 12/03/04 04/01/05 Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 11 13 Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 55 65 Hurricanes (H)(5.9) 6 7 Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5) 25 35 Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3 3 Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0) 6 7 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 115 135 Check the right sidebar for a 2004 comparison and link to last year's scoreboard.
In the coming days and weeks, I will be posting excerpts from my new book, Florida Hurricane Survival Guide for Newbies. The material is drawn directly from my first encounter with hurricanes in the maddening season of 2004. If you're new to Florida, I hope the lessons I learned last year will help you through your first hurricane season.Regional Probability Forecast:
Probabilities For At Least One Major (Category 3-4-5) Hurricane Landfall On Each Of The Following Coastal Areas:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 49% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 39% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
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