Tropical Storm Ernesto to Visit the Gulf

Tropical Storm Ernesto looks as if it will make a visit to the Gulf of Mexico. The models seem to predict a North Central Gulf Coast hit. It's still too early to tell, but here's the lastest discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ERNESTO AND FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 999 MB WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS DUE TO THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 45 KNOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AVAILABLE REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT. ERNESTO HAS BEEN A FIGHTER AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE STRONG SHEAR SO FAR. UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERNESTO...A PATTERN WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM WATERS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ERNESTO BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND VERY SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. OF COURSE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND STRENGTHENING MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT DECREASE.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

We'll be monitoring. Believe me.