First Day of Hurricane Season

Today is the first day of hurricane season and for the occasion, the venerable Dr. William M. Gray et al. at the Tropical Meteorology Project have revised the forecast upward. If you listen closely you can hear the sound of an entire state letting out a heavy sigh of resignation...tinged with worry...tinged with terror.

If you are warmed by numbers, you will be happy to learn that statistically speaking, it is highly unlikely that Florida will be hammered by 170 hurricanes again this year. But before you become too complacent, remember this: after every hurricane last year, someone invariably said "statistically speaking, it's highly unlikely we'll get hit again." And yet a major hurricane made landfall in Florida roughly every ten days between mid-July and the end of August. I feel fully justified for hating my college statistics class.

Dr. Gray's new forecast:

2005 Forecast
Forecast Activity as of:	04/01/05	05/31/05
Named Storms (NS)	13	15
Named Storm Days (NSD)	65	75
Hurricanes (H)	7	8
Hurricane Days (HD)	35	45
Intense Hurricanes (IH)	3	4
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)	7	11
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)	135	170
Check the right sidebar for a 2004 comparison and link to last year's scoreboard.

Dr. Gray and his team do not expect El Nino conditions to develop this summer. They also predict an above-average probability of US landfalls this season. Oh joy.

Regional Probability Forecast:
Probabilities For At Least One Major (Category 3-4-5) Hurricane Landfall On Each Of The Following Coastal Areas:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 77% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 59% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean and in the Bahamas

In my last post, I promised you excerpts from my new book, Florida Hurricane Survival Guide for Newbies. I have not forgotten. I decided to wait until the beginning of season, which is now (sigh) here. I'll post the introductory chapter within 24 hours.